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The NASDAQ is now down 12% from all-time highs, which is almost as much as the pullback earlier this year:

If you have been following the notes that I am putting out, then you know that I track macro liquidity and cross-border flows very closely. If the largest flows in financial markets change, you MUST take notice, or you will get sidelined. No one cares about macro or interest rates until their portfolio is down.

What I want to focus on today is WHAT is driving the selling pressure across equities and WHEN will that selling pressure begin to subside?

TWO DRIVERS:

Right now, there are two very clear drivers putting downward pressure on US equities:

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LIVESTREAM RECORDING AND CONNECTED REPORTS:

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The S&P500 is only down 2.18% from the all-time high, which is minimal compared to the drawdown that took place earlier this year. The main question on the front of everyone’s mind is WHERE are we going from here? Lower? Higher? Chopping?

The entire goal of today’s report and livestream recording is to break down every driver of capital flows in the index right now to answer these questions.

Tomorrow's livestream, we will dig into hedge fund positioning and the complacency that exists. All of these small pieces are coming together to build a larger cohesive picture.

Livestream link for paid subscribers

All of the new macro models are linked below as well.

As a reminder, the CME is having their single stock futures webinar in 2 days. This will be an important one to be at since these new derivatives will be a new instrument in financial markets for obtaining cheap leverage.

FULL MACRO BREAKDOWN:

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• Market Shift and Risks

• My Market View and Positions Have Changed

• The Momentum Trade Unwind and Carry Trade Risks (New Capital Flows Models Included Here)

• You can find all past livestreams here: LINK

Yesterday I sent out the new macro models. Today you are getting the new Weekend Intelligence Brief, which breaks down the most important ideas and information I am watching across the major countries in the world. This brief matters because it zooms out to contextualize the bigger picture while connecting everything directly to market changes. Depth, breadth, and clarity all matter, and this is WHERE they come together.

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You can go back through the past livestreams to see the bigger picture ideas I laid out:

• The Re-Industrialization Of The USA Powerhouse

• The Winner Take All AI Race Between The US and China

• The American Exceptionalism Trade

• SOFR, Interest Rate Volatility, and Macro Endgame

The updated notes on the macro regime and my positions in it are here:

The livestream recording from today, new models, and proprietary report are below the paywall for paid subscribers.

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Read the update, then watch the recording of the stream below. The recording is a further breakdown of WHY my market view changed and HOW my positions are structured.

Tomorrow’s Livestream: The Momentum Trade Unwind and Carry Trade Risks

Tomorrow’s livestream will map the momentum trade unwind and WHERE carry trade risks are building across global markets. The stream will connect the unwind mechanics to the change in my market view and the positions I am running. Given the heightened significance of the changes taking place, both today’s stream and tomorrows will only be for paid subscribers.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the entire stream will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

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Main takeaways from the macro playbook section:

• Re-industrialization is WHY interest rates are not lower right now: the US is retooling hardware (manufacturing, defense, energy) at the same time AI retools software, and the convergence of the two is the defining investment backdrop.

• The 1990s post-Cold War consolidation left the defense primes structurally slow and wrongly incentivized; Anduril, Palantir and SpaceX broke the model, and hundreds of startups are now being funded across the stack using first-principles vertical integration, WHERE the best part is no part and cost is driven to the commodity floor.

• Ukraine and Iran proved kinetic munitions are exhaustible and magazine depth wins: two to three interceptors per cheap Shahed drone is economic suicide, so the near-term trade is rebuilding the magazine while directed energy and electronic warfare take over the defensive layer over time.

• China is the supplier to both sides of the Ukraine battle line (bearings, batteries, small electronics), controls over 90 percent of critical minerals processing and out-produces US shipbuilding by more than 200 times; the industrial base, not any single weapon, is America’s most important economic asset.

• The US wins factories through automation, not labor: New Vista portfolio company Deterrence is using physics-based AI to lift General Dynamics’ 155mm shell throughput toward Chinese and Russian rates, because the skilled-trade base has collapsed to the point WHERE only a few dozen welders in the country can work on nuclear submarines.

• Space is an active theater, no longer a science experiment: Starship-scale launch, orbital data centers and contested satellite activity mean a single nuclear detonation in low earth orbit would erase GPS and commercial connectivity, making space infrastructure one of the largest unpriced opportunities of the next decade.

You can find the free recording on the US Re-Industrialization Playbook here in the YouTube video:

Tomorrow’s Livestream: The Global Impulse To Devalue: US Interest Rates and The Dollar:

Tomorrow’s livestream focuses on the current drivers of US interest rates and the dollar. We will map WHY the geopolitical tension with China is creating a global impulse to devalue currencies relative to the Yuan.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Here is the transcript that you can feed into AI to ask questions to synthesize ideas:

The Re Industrialization Of The Usa Powerhouse Jul 15 2026 Restream

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The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

Main takeaways from the macro playbook section:

• Limited downside in ZT and ES into CPI played out exactly as laid out: the July FOMC is now pricing an 82 percent probability of a hold, bonds caught a bid, and equity pullbacks driven by rate risk remain short term in nature. Understanding rates is the key to mapping equity beta right now.

I explained all of this here:

• AI IPOs are functioning like FOMC events. Cerebras set the top in NVIDIA and SK Hynix set the low almost to the day, and SK Hynix traded up 24 percent on 61 million shares. IPOs do not come out in a contracting liquidity market, so the liquidity impulse is confirmed.

• Equity valuations are the highest in human history across the S&P, the Russell, the Nikkei, and Europe, and the driver is not just the AI trade. China’s refusal to revalue its currency creates an excess of dollar liquidity that shows up as record foreign buying of US equities.

• AI is a winner take all race with no prize for second place. OpenAI lost its lead to Anthropic within six months, Chinese open source models already sit near 46 percent of US enterprise usage, and the top 10 names account for a record 41 percent of the S&P 500.

• The AI trade has quietly broken into four separate trades (chipmakers, hyperscalers, power, and the China cycle) while most books still hedge it as one, and the binding constraint keeps migrating along the chain from wafers to memory to power.

• CME single stock futures on 55 names with a 100x multiplier are coming, with compute futures right behind them. These products will reprice hedging flows, overnight risk, and geopolitical risk across the entire AI complex.

  • You should sign up for their free webinar where they will lay out the playbook on how these new derivatives will function. This will be critical if you are actively trading in markets: https://t.co/0LIIPVhtEd

You can find the free recording on the AI Race Playbook here in the YouTube video:

The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.

Macro Decks From today’s stream:

• All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK

• Deck from today: LINK

Tomorrow’s Livestream: The Re-Industrialization Of The USA Powerhouse

Wednesday’s stream covers the re-industrialization of the USA with John Lott and Brando Brandolini d’Adda of New Vista Capital, a VC firm operating in close proximity to the most significant defense companies and the US companies pushing re-industrialization forward. We will map the full factor set behind the theme, including the parts of this buildout that most of the public never sees.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Proprietary Report On The AI Race And The Warsh Regime

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Main takeaways from the free section:

• China runs a near one trillion dollar goods surplus behind a closed capital account, and with no alternative market at scale that surplus recycles into US assets by necessity. That recycling loop, not sentiment, is WHY S&P 500 valuations have stayed elevated for the last decade.

• Capital flows drive trade flows, not the reverse. Foreign savings pour into deep, safe, open US markets, strengthen the dollar, and mechanically widen the trade deficit, WHICH is why tariffs only rerouted supply chains through Mexico, Vietnam, and Malaysia while the trade balance stayed deeply negative.

• The dollar’s reserve status is a dividend and a bill. It carries 58% of world reserves and 88% of all currency trades and delivers the cheapest funding on Earth, and the cost shows up as a hollowed out middle class and stagnant real wages.

• American exceptionalism is physical before it is cultural: temperate coastal land is 3% of the world’s land yet produces 32% of its output, America holds more of it than anyone plus the largest navigable river network, and moving cargo costs 3.6% of value in the US against 10% in East Asia. The shale revolution stacked net energy exporter status on top of that endowment.

• The gold rally was a hedge on the global trade system, not a dollar devaluation trade. Gold bid while equities and the dollar sold off together in March 2025 because countries needed a neutral asset the moment tariffs put the entire settlement system at risk, and that regime argues against gold revisiting 3,000.

• TSMC is the single choke point of the AI arms race, WHICH makes a Taiwan shock the tail risk to pre-plan: any invasion headline means shorting chip names and ES immediately. The CME single stock futures launching July 27 on NVIDIA, AMD, and other tech names are the instruments to have staged for exactly that moment.

You can find the free recording on the American Exceptionalism Playbook here in the YouTube video:

The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.

Macro Decks From today’s stream:

• All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK

• Deck from today: LINK

Tomorrow’s Livestream: The Winner Take All AI Race Between The US and China:

Tomorrow’s livestream takes on the winner take all AI race between the US and China, WHERE the environment AI has created leaves no prize for second place and the US must win to maintain its dominance. The stream will map HOW that race transmits through chips, compute, defense, and capital flows into positioning across US assets.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Proprietary Report On The American Exceptionalism Trade

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Main takeaways from the livestream:

• For the first time in years the market genuinely cannot decide if the Fed’s next move is a hike, with the July 29 meeting priced near a coin flip at 66% hold and 34% hike and roughly 51 basis points of hikes priced to terminal. The forward curve, not sentiment or consensus, is WHAT tells you the Fed path.

• The December 2026 SOFR contract is now the largest contract by open interest in SOFR history, with open interest up 28% in just over two months. The Z6/Z7 and Z6/Z8 calendar spreads price only 6 and 14 basis points of cuts, so if the Fed overtightens into disinflation those spreads have to reprice sharply lower, which makes them the daily one stop read on the front end.

• Rate volatility does not flow evenly through time, it pools at FOMC meetings and data catalysts and goes quiet between them. Interest rate vol sitting this low is WHY higher rates are not contracting liquidity, and with CPI next week expected to show disinflation, equities are skewed to drift higher between catalysts.

• The recession narrative fails the data test: nominal GDP is running at 5.8% against 2% real, ISM manufacturing has accelerated for five to six prints, and industrials and financials sit at all time highs. ITB up 2% year to date versus the S&P up 11% is normal credit cycle rotation, nothing like the 70% homebuilder collapse that warned in 2008.

• Japan is funding heavy government spending with bills at the short end WHERE real rates are negative, around negative 38 basis points on the two year. Every Japanese saver in short term debt loses money in real terms while the Ministry of Finance wins, and that transfer is the mechanical reason the yen keeps devaluing. Japan’s government deficit:

• CME single stock futures launch this month on names like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir, bringing 24/5 trading and futures margin efficiency to single names. That changes hedging flows and overnight risk expression, and it feeds the same cross collateralized IPO flows that let Cerebras set both a top and a bottom in NVIDIA.

You can find the free recording on the SOFR and Interest Rate Volatility Playbook here in the YouTube video:

The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.

Macro Decks From today’s stream:

• All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK

• Deck from today: LINK

Monday’s Livestream: The American Exceptionalism Trade

The livestream for Monday (no stream tomorrow) will take on the American Exceptionalism trade, the question of whether USD reserve status, the rise of global trade, and the US innovation hub remain the critical bet as global rebalancing takes place. It will map HOW those three pillars channel capital flows and WHERE the pressure points sit as the rest of the world competes for that capital.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Proprietary Report On SOFR, Interest Rate Volatility, and Macro Endgame

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Main takeaways from the free section:

• Everything in global macro starts with interest rates. They are the price of money that the entire economy and market turn on, and if you understand HOW the SOFR curve is pricing changes, you set the stage for capital allocation decisions across any time horizon.

• Conviction is always research and evidence based. Aggressiveness and concentration get moderated by the amount of evidence supporting the view and the coherence of every moving part, not by equally weighted lists of bullish and bearish reasons.

• Volatility is a function of time. The edge is having a different time horizon or risk tolerance than the market: get onsides intraday or intraweek, then use that cushion to hold the bigger picture view.

• Cross asset confirmation frames every trade. The CADJPY flush on oil’s double top confirmed getting longer equities, and the Z6 contract’s floor into the July FOMC set the bottom in ZN that set the intraday bottom in ES, WHICH keeps the path pointed toward an all time high while people still say liquidity is contracting.

• CME launches single stock futures on July 27. Overnight risk transfer on names like Oracle will change HOW hedging flows move the underlying stocks, and dislocations will increasingly trade around the clock.

• https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/6/30/cme_group_to_launchsinglestockfuturesonjuly27.html

• All the educational primers now live in one spot. Foundations, the macro toolkit, asset class primers, the alpha generation series, country deep dives, a 360 paper research library, and the TradingView models are free and downloadable in one click.

  • The Macro Intelligence Hub, every educational primer, playbook, model, and the 360 paper research library synthesized in one free spot: LINK
    

You can find the free recording on the Trading and Investing Framework Playbook here in the YouTube video:

The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.

Macro Decks From today’s stream:

• All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK

• The Macro Intelligence Hub, every educational primer, playbook, model, and the 360 paper research library synthesized in one free spot: LINK

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Tomorrow’s Livestream: SOFR, Interest Rate Volatility, and Macro Endgame

Tomorrow’s stream digs into SOFR, interest rate volatility, and WHERE the macro endgame is heading as CPI and the July FOMC approach. We will map HOW the SOFR curve is pricing the path from here and WHAT compressed rate volatility means for every asset built on top of it.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Proprietary Report On Flows Into CPI And FOMC

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Main takeaways from the free section:

• PURR’s mNAV has averaged 1.04 since the December close but traded in a wide band between 0.77 and 1.3. Management issues shares above roughly 1.1 and buys back stock below roughly 0.9, so the volatility of the premium is the mechanism that compounds NAV, not a flaw in the structure.

• The warrant and lockup concerns are smaller than the market believes. All warrants remain out of the money, the recent S-1 was a contractually required registration rather than a sale, and the sponsor shares remain locked with not a single one sold.

• Compared to the ETFs, PURR stakes 100% of its tokens, runs four employees, and spreads a fixed expense base over a growing market cap while ETF fees stay constant. At an mNAV near 0.95, the ecosystem call option on the largest HYPE holding in the world is priced at zero.

• The company holds roughly $2 billion of HYPE plus $150 million of cash, and HIP3 deployment requires a lot of HYPE tokens. PURR can fund WHAT almost nobody else in the ecosystem can, and that capacity is the core of the thesis, not the quarter to quarter mNAV noise.

• Leadership took the communication feedback directly and committed to more public storytelling, which has been the weakest part of the execution so far.

You can find the free recording on the Hyperliquid Playbook here in the YouTube video.

The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.

Macro Decks From today’s stream:

• All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK

Tomorrow’s Livestream: I Am Going To Lay Out My Trading And Investing Framework

Tomorrow’s stream lays out the complete trading and investing framework behind every position we take. The stream will map HOW regime analysis, positioning, and asymmetric risk reward come together into one repeatable process.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Proprietary Report On The Hyperliquid Utility Thesis

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Main takeaways from the free section:

• Single stock volatility is at record levels against the VIX while implied correlation collapses. The index is flat to marginally down while leadership rotates underneath, WHICH means the market is repositioning on excess liquidity, not contracting.

• Corporate credit issuance hit 110 billion in June, the strongest month since March and nearly double last year, with year to date issuance at 685 billion. This is a credit cycle melt up, and financials printing all time highs confirms liquidity is not contracting.

• Every major bubble follows the same playbook: capital floods a single asset class and the best traders get long the parabolic move. Internet stocks in the nineties, mortgages in the two thousands, crypto in 2021, and now AI compute is the next asset class absorbing the flows.

• The Fed is holding real rates up as inflation swaps fall with crude, and the SOFR strip is pricing roughly 50 basis points of hikes through 2026. Downside in the whites and reds is limited from here, WHICH caps how bearish the setup can get for equities.

• Fiscal stimulus baskets show Japan and Germany outperforming while the US basket lags, with the Nikkei up 33 percent year to date against 9 percent for the S&P. Government spending funded by short term issuance is the engine, and it is cooking the yen.

• Oracle remains one of the most asymmetric setups in the market: a 44 percent reversion from the highs, sitting on the 200 week moving average, directly leveraged to the next stage of the AI cycle WHERE data, memory, and infrastructure converge.

You can find the free recording on the Liquidity Event Playbook here in the YouTube video:

The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.

Macro Decks From today’s stream:

• All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK

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Tomorrow’s Livestream: My Update On PURR and The Future Of Hyperliquid

Tomorrow’s stream covers my update on PURR and WHERE Hyperliquid goes from here. We will map the onchain flows, the positioning setup, and HOW the next stage of the Hyperliquid ecosystem connects to the broader liquidity regime.

Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):

Stream Link For Paid Subscribers

Proprietary Report On The Next Liquidity Event

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