We are moving into a new era for the Capital Flows Livestream. The first section will continue to be free, which will cover the major ideas and macro mechanics that you need to orient yourself in the macro context. The second section for paid members now has a proprietary report and comprehensively explains every level of the macro regime so you can have conviction and clarity.

The entire goal is to have a livestream that breaks everything down for you and a synthesized report where you can get the bottom-line takeaways (sub 20 min read).

You can watch the first section here:

The Macro Playbook from the free section of the stream can be found here:

• Deck From Jaymes: https://silver-hamster-610e3b.netlify.app/

• PDF explaining macro:

Capital Flows Livestream Production 2026 06 15

1.54MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow’s Livestream:

As I laid out in the livestream, the first section of the stream will be streamed to Twitter, YouTube, and Substack. Once we enter the paid members section covering the proprietary research, it will only be available on Substack for paid members.

Tomorrow’s livestream on “The Warsh Regime Change and The Credit Cycle” will be available here:

The free section of the stream and then the following private members section will be streamed here on Substack:

Private Members Livestream Link

Proprietary Report On COMPUTE IS THE NEW OIL

Here is the proprietary report from the members’ livestream:

Read more

If you are actively managing risk in markets, then the only way to navigate this new world is by understanding HOW the largest macro drivers are shifting and WHAT the most asymmetric bets are.

Tomorrow at 11:30 am MST (1.5 hours before cash equity close), I will be laying out the new changes for the Capital Flows Livestream and covering the most mispriced AND misunderstood idea in the markets right now: Compute is the new oil

I will have something special for everyone who is at the livestream. Here is the YouTube link to join:

And you can join via Substack with this link:

Substack Livestream Link

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

You can also find the recent podcast I did with The Rollup here: LINK

The global carry trade on the edge of a cliff

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Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. PURR hit 13 dollars on the Hyperliquid DApp last night, and call buying volume into Friday’s close was the highest we have seen to date in the name. The call skew is rising at the same time as the price is rising, which is the signature setup for a gamma squeeze. This is no longer just an asymmetric bet on the underlying value proposition.

2. The thesis has escalated to a probable gamma squeeze that pushes PURR to trade at a significant multiple of the underlying tokens. A gamma squeeze occurs when dealers are short calls and forced to hedge into rising vol by buying the underlying. With strikes only listed to 18 dollars across all expirations on a low float stock, every higher strike that gets listed compounds the squeeze pressure.

3. GameStop is the cleanest historical analog and the squeeze happened in two legs. The first leg was shorts getting squeezed out, which is the smaller move. The second leg was retail piling into calls and dealers being forced to hedge by buying the underlying, which is where the parabolic move came from.

4. The Russell adding Hyperliquid is the passive flow catalyst that stacks on top of the gamma squeeze setup. Passive flows are mechanically forced buyers regardless of price. Adding the index inclusion to the rising call skew and the low float means three independent buyers are competing for the same shares.

5. Hyperliquid rallying while Bitcoin lags falsifies the entire crypto correlation framework. People said Hyperliquid would drag down with Bitcoin and miss the entire point. The cash flows of hyperliquid are shifting their source from crypto to traditional markets through HIP-III, which means the correlation structure has to shift with the underlying flow.

6. Real interest rates are still near zero and credit spreads remain suppressed. Risk seeking capital is concentrating into the winner take all disruptors. Hyperliquid sits at the nexus of every major US financial system disruption happening right now: perpetuals, 24-7 trading, prediction markets, IPOs trading pre-launch. Filter by disruption, not by what rallied in the past cycle.

7. The AI capex build-out is functioning like a commodity market with supply and demand imbalances, not like a PE multiple story. Mag Seven names are behaving more like oil producers locking in prices to hedge supply against demand. That framework explains why rates rising have not crushed the rally and why software through IGV and Oracle is leading.

8. Position sizing is the entire game from here. Do not chase, but do not abandon the thesis either. If you bought at 13 yesterday and you are nervous, size down to where you can sleep through the volatility. If you have been long since sub-350, the thesis got stronger, not weaker.

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Here is the slide deck from today:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 06 01

11.5MB ∙ PDF file

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The entire gamma squeeze thesis:

As a reminder, I continue to hold my ORCL long as well. The spot trade and calls I bought are up massively. I continue to hold the risk. Calls are up 366% since I bought them. Everything was laid out here:

• This is my next big bet (Oracle Risk reward)

Tomorrow’s Livestream: Special Guest on Bitcoin, Hyperliquid, and Global Macro Flows

Tomorrow I will have a special guest on to break down Bitcoin, Hyperliquid, and how global macro flows are driving both.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

My entire goal is very simple: map the macro regime in order to stay on the right side of it and take massive asymmetric bets. The goal is simple, but harnessing the complexity of markets into simple actions is something that few people succeed at. As the entire financial industry suppresses risk, my goal is to actively take and hold risk. Why? Because you get paid to hold risk, not suppress it.

The livestream tomorrow will be at 8:30 a.m. MST, and you can save the link below.

LIVESTREAM FOR TOMORROW: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

Let me lay out each factor and then show you how they all STACK on top of each other to create an asymmetrical outcome that people are not aware of right now.

The Big Picture Context:

I have been explaining my thesis behind for over 6 months now. I started explaining it to paid subscribers just after the merger, when we were trading below $3.50:

We are now up 217% from the lows with A TON of momentum in our sails.

TWO things have changed since I originally laid out this thesis:

1. The credit cycle has caused a significant injection of liquidity and credit, which is causing an everything rally.

   1. I have documented my views on the credit cycle extensively, explaining how the inflation risk has actually accelerated the fall in real rates, which has pushed more capital out the risk curve. Read these reports on this:

      1. Credit Cycle Playbook: Stagflation vs Melt Up

      2. The Melt-Up Trigger: The Playbook For The Credit Cycle Melt Up

2. The microstructure of the market around has dramatically changed over the last 2 weeks, which is creating a very high probability of a gamma squeeze in .

   1. I have explained the entire thesis since the beginning in the following reports (in order of date published):

      1. My Large Macro/Crypto Bet (Dec 09, 2025)

      2. They sold everyone a lie and then became the new establishment (Jan 16, 2026)

      3. THE BIG BET: WHY THE GAP IS WIDENING (Feb 02, 2026)

      4. My Large Macro/Crypto Bet: Updated Analysis, Fair Value Indicator & Full Report (Feb 11, 2026)

      5. My Largest Bets in the Credit Cycle Melt-Up (Apr 14, 2026, This one explains my ORCL and PURR thesis and how they are connected to the credit cycle).

      6. Hyperliquid and Global Capital Flows (FREE MODEL INCLUDED)

      7. If you want to review my entire thesis on ORCL, see here:

         1. The AI Reflexivity Loop (this moment will define you)

         2. This is my next big bet (Oracle Risk reward) (see this if you want my levels and call strike for ORCL)

            • Oracle Model: LINK

         3. AI Playbook, Larry Ellison’s Big Bet With ORCL, and New Stock Models

Over the last 7 trading days, it has become very clear that we have entered an “everything rally” similar to 2021. This is in direct alignment with the credit cycle thesis I have laid out. Citrini had a great comment on this as well:

As I have stated over and OVER, you always want to be long the right tail during a credit cycle melt-up. This is when the largest positive returns take place in markets.

We are already seeing shorts get squeezed in a massive way as bearish bets get unwound and traders are forced to buy low-quality companies due to the surplus of money in the system.

The Change in PURR:

Over the two weeks, the positioning in the market has changed dramatically in both how sector flows are changing, how capital is moving out the risk curve, and how institutional players are about to be forced to chase the buying pressure in $PURR.

Fundamentally, when we have an increase in the amount of capital in the system, traders are FORCED to take additional bets, or else they underperform the benchmark. This is also true for the underlying economy, with what many people label as “retail.” When incomes accelerate in the economy, more money can go into brokerage accounts to bet on high-beta names. This is not a bug of the system; it is a very important feature!

As this is taking place, Hyperliquid is the winner-take-all project in the crypto and TradFi space. I was laying out the Hyperliquid and PURR thesis when we were at the low 20s, and then another risk-reward set up after flows began to accelerate even faster:

But things have shifted even more aggressively than I originally anticipated. We just had the largest day of volume in the history of PURR on Friday, as implied vol is rising with the price. When implied volatility is rising at the same time as the price, it shows there is a massive demand for calls.

This is where things are about to get incredibly unhinged, and the short-term upside is getting even more extreme. We are seeing massive call buying in PURR, which wouldn’t be a big deal if it were a larger stock with a larger tradable float. The problem is that it’s only a $1.4b market cap with a very small tradeable flow. This means that it only takes a small push to have a big move.

I wrote a short Twitter thread on this, explaining that once higher strikes are listed on the stock, it is very likely to have a massive gamma squeeze because there just aren’t enough shares on the market to supply the demand for these types of squeezes. (please reshare this if you find it helpful)

By the way, GME was at a $1.4b market cap right before it had its massive squeeze. I am not just drawing an arbitrary connection. This is 100% about a highly inelastic stock with massive potential for a gamma squeeze as higher strikes get listed and market makers are forced to buy shares in order to hedge their risk.

We only have strikes listed to $18 and it is highly likely that if we begin squeezing and they list higher strikes, a gamma squeeze will ensue. When a gamma squeeze happens, it is impossible to tell HOW HIGH a stock can go. This doesn’t even take into account that Hyperliquid could get integrated into the United States any day now, and PURR is THE only liquid market in the world right now to get call exposure to Hyperliquid.

Stack on top of this that is getting added to the Russell this month, and you have the perfect storm for a massive call squeeze.

Again, it is literally impossible to know how high we can squeeze in such a low float stock during such an extreme part of the credit cycle (especially if Hyperliquid gets added!). If we follow the GME path, things could go way higher than anyone expects. The moment they list strikes higher than $18 dollars and volume begins to run through, it is game on.

I don’t think many people remember this but one of the main reasons for the short squeezes in 2021 was that higher and higher strikes kept getting listed on low float stocks during the credit cycle melt-up. If you traded during this time, then you know that many times we would trade all the way up to the highest strike and not go higher until more strikes were listed. During the gap ups in GME, this moved exactly in lockstep with how options were listed at higher strikes, and it happened well after shorts were covered.

One of the tools I use to monitor option flow across situations like this is . Judah does an excellent job at tracking these flows in real time, and if you’re actively operating in the option flow space, I’d recommend you check him out. We are going to see the flow for PURR come out in the option chain for the specific positioning dynamic I’m talking about.

The divergence in reality:

Everyone would like to think that Hyperliquid has “priced in” all of the good news because it’s all over the FinTwit timeline. I will say this over and OVER, sentiment isn’t a strategy. You need to map the flows of capital and what actually causes people to buy and sell instead of fading arbitrary accounts with zero signal. This is why understanding the fundamental thesis I laid out and the option strikes is so critical.

Even if we looked at quantitative metrics, article mentions of Hyperliquid are still below their 2025 highs:

Is there recognition of PURR on twitter? Maybe marginally relative to history. On the best days, there are 70 tweets mentioning .

On any regular day, there are thousands of tweets talking about treasury companies that have NEGATIVE P&L’s.

PURR is outperforming MSTR but has 1/100th of the recognition even on its best day:

The continual theme is that social media is a misleading machine meant to desensitize you to the actual causal mechanics in markets. It is supposed to distort your perception of reality and distract you. I explained this connects to the macro endgame we are approaching here:

The Endgame:

We are entering a macro endgame where the credit cycle, geopolitics, and AI are all converging so that everything has become the same trade. I continue to believe that significant risks are building under the surface but that the current flows are skewing equities to the upside. Therefore, I remain bullish on equities because we are likely to melt up much further before we crash.

We have entered the stage of the “everything rally” where capital is moving out the risk curve and you should expect crazier and crazier things to happen. Hyperliquid is the most disruptive and innovative project in the financial system right now and PURR is the single best expression of the trade.

I believe there is a very strong probability that we have a gamma squeeze in PURR within the next 60 trading days. If this occurs, it will gap up much higher than anyone expects.

I continue to hold the full PURR position into this.

Welcome to Global Macro. You get paid to hold risk.

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

My Hyperliquid Thesis for why we are likely to hit $350:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. The Hyperliquid funding rate dashboard is live and free for all subscribers on the website. It breaks down funding rates across every major HIP-III asset, including the S&P, oil, gold, and individual stocks. The code is free, the data is free, and you can plug it into Claude Code yourself (see below).

2. The largest players in the world want nothing more than to migrate onto Hyperliquid to take advantage of these funding rates. Some equity indices have negative funding rates at extremes, others have positive funding at extremes. That gap is the arbitrage institutions cannot access yet because Hyperliquid has not been added in the US.

3. Hyperliquid is rewriting how data costs work in the global economy. Most market data costs thousands of dollars per month and locks out retail. Hyperliquid is on-chain, free to access, and that fundamentally pushes data costs down across the entire system.

4. PURR is up 180% percent from the lows where I originally laid out the thesis. Nothing has changed. PURR is still my largest position and Hyperliquid is still my view to hit $350 dollars this year.

5. Loracle’s short position is not a directional bet. It is a leverage and lockout mechanic against a large staked spot position. The crypto market does not understand structured positioning, so they read every short as bearish. That is why understanding positioning mechanics is alpha.

6. The Trader’s Trilemma: edge, frequency, and risk capacity. You can only pick two. High edge plus high frequency means your risk capacity collapses. High frequency plus low risk means your edge per trade thins out. Anyone selling you all three is lying.

7. Three archetypes: sniper, machine, gambler. Snipers play high edge low frequency and protect risk. Machines play high frequency systematic and limit downside. Gamblers play high edge high frequency and accept blowup risk. Pick your seat or you end up overloaded across all three.

Hyperliquid Funding Rate Model:

Here is the complete model for mapping funding rates across Hyperliquid. Why does this matter? Because it represents the supply and demand of leverage on the platform. The fact that these funding rates move so much and to so many extremes, in itself, represents the value proposition for more US market makers to come on and provide liquidity.

You can take this PDF, feed it into an AI, and it will automatically autopopulate everything for you.

Cfr Hl Funding Explorer Onboarding

2.8MB ∙ PDF file

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Slide deck from

Iron Triangle Deck

3.43MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow's Livestream: Special Guest Tyler Neville On Tomorrow To Discuss Positioning, The AI Trade, and the Credit Cycle

Tomorrow I am going to have on my good friend, Tyler Neville. He has one of the most thoughtful and unique views of the market from an actual risk-taking perspective. We will be talking about how sector and factor positioning is shifting around the AI trade and WHY the credit cycle is driving everything.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. All exceptional returns exist in the tails. Singles keep your seat at the table, tails are how you actually compound. The entire industry is structured around hedging tails so they do not have to think about them. If you are in the business of risk taking, you know returns come from extreme events.

2. Bear markets come in three archetypes: cyclical, event driven, and structural. These are mental models for breaking down drivers, not rules markets must obey. The current setup has a flavor of all three plus the seventies inflation overlay.

3. Diagnose the system or you cannot prescribe a position. Most people misdiagnose the regime and then take positions that hurt them. The right question is what are the actual drivers, not which historical analog do I want to fit this into.

4. Today’s setup is sovereign balance sheet risk, not commercial balance sheet risk. 2008 was commercial leverage blowing up. The current setup is sovereign leverage and currency repricing. The mechanism is fundamentally different.

5. All large equity bear markets compress into specific factor unwinds. Tech in 2000, cyclicals in 2008, broad multiples in 2022. Knowing which factor is the actual risk lets you hedge it directly rather than reducing exposure across the entire book.

6. PURR is the only treasury company in the world with a net positive position on its underlying asset. Hyperliquid Strategies is already up a billion dollars on its hype position. Not even MicroStrategy has that right now.

7. PURR buys back stock when it trades at a discount to NAV and issues when it trades at a premium. That is fundamentally different from every other crypto treasury company. The leadership is increasing the probability of outperformance through capital allocation mechanics most people are not even modeling.

8. Hyperliquid is a pricing mechanism, not a pump and dump trade. It provides ISDA-level leverage to non-institutional players, which changes the cost of leverage globally. The value proposition is the entire thesis, not the ETF flow.

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Here is the slide deck from today:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 24

12.4MB ∙ PDF file

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I will send out a final version of the Hyperliquid model from today’s livestream in the breakdown tomorrow. Just putting some final additions on it for you.

Tomorrow’s Livestream: Hyperliquid and Global Capital Flows

Tomorrow, I am going to break down more of the model on mapping the flows for Hyperliquid and HOW global capital flows contextualize disruption in the financial industry.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

Every bear market feels like the end of the world. None of them are. They follow three patterns: cyclical, event-driven, and structural. Once you can identify the pattern, you can map the duration, the depth, and the path back to new highs.

Tomorrow, I’m walking through 200 years of every major drawdown across the US, Japan, Europe, and China. We’ll spend most of our time on the eleven that matter: 1929, 1973, 1980, 1987, the dot com bust, the GFC, Japan’s lost decades, the 2011 sovereign crisis, the COVID crash, and the 2022 stocks and bonds bear.

For each one, we will dig into: the trigger, the melt-up that preceded it, the drivers that pulled it down, the rate backdrop, and the shape of the recovery.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

I will also be covering more on my Hyperliquid thesis and PURR trade. You can find the most recent Twitter thread I wrote on it below. Nothing has changed in my thesis, and I continue to hold my PURR position.

Thanks

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

There is a continuous feed of disorienting news that is intentionally desensitizing you to the signal in markets, or even worse, manipulating your perception so you can’t tell what is true or what is false. All of us experience this to varying degrees as we navigate WHERE we are in the cycle. Monitoring the situation has become the new way to orient oneself to a world where extreme outcomes are building under the surface but then reveal themselves in a moment of volatility. But the dark side of being terminally online is the endless doomscrolling that comes as an unintended consequence of monitoring the situation.

As a result, the closer you look, the less you see.

The biggest problem I see today is that there is such a massive divergence between what people are focusing on and how the system actually functions. This divergence grows with every day that passes because AI’s retooling of every aspect of reality has converged with a surplus of liquidity, so the speed of the system is increasing, which in turn creates greater disorientation as attention and the psyoping of people become an actual form of liquidity in themselves.

Many CEOs and fund managers have recognized this new environment and understand how to pitch themselves as the new meta that will change everything in the world. If you can control the way someone views the world, they will only anchor to positive developments that confirm their view and chalk up anything negative to “short-termism and impatience.” As a result, operators in financial markets are actively trying to create psychological distortion fields around their shareholders under the guise of “education” or “freedom” in order to create premiums they can use to their advantage.

The end result is that we have a world where not only are people focusing on the wrong questions, but everyone around you is actively trying to misdirect you and harness your attention on the device that constantly sits in your pocket and is the place of safety you turn to when you are uncertain about the world.

Compressing the risks into a single moment in time

The biggest risk in this market is that everyone has been desensitized and so misled that they don't even acknowledge the largest risks that are building under the surface. Risks are building in the equity market, interest rate complex, and FX market that are fundamentally unsustainable (I’ll cover these below), and no one even recognizes them because they have been so desensitized to how black swans actually function.

No one sees the risks because they are too busy “monitoring the situation.” As I said, the closer you look, the less you see.

Stack on top of this the fact that the microstructure of the market has turned into a highly inelastic mechanism that has never seen a true market correction with this amount of 0dte volume and leveraged products.

Ask yourself how in the world $3B in weekly volume in betting markets has been normalized. And this is only a fraction of the prediction markets that exist. Kalshi and Polymarket have become natural parts of everyday conversations despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of users lose all their money.

We have institutionalized and normalized a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich and called it “the freedom to hedge your risk or express yourself.” The newest billionaire class is being made under this guise of “freedom.”

While the younger generation is being lulled into gambling, boomers are being sold the lie that the market is as safe as it’s ever been because index funds will always outperform. Conviction in the market strengthens as passive flows take a larger share of the market and concentration into Mag7 intensifies.

As the concentration of risk intensifies and gambling is normalized, the largest equity indices in the world are ALL at the highest valuations in human history. When asked to justify valuations, AI narratives are immediately put up as smoke screens even though the high valuations are across indices that have the least exposure to AI disrupters.

The price to sales ratios for the Russell 3k and Topix are also at all-time highs, which indicates that the higher valuations are not just in a single sector but pervasive across industries.

The highest risk companies in the system are outperforming the entire S&P500 index in a manner similar to the 2021 melt up.

The entire point is that all of these factors represent real risks in the system, but everyone has been normalized to their existence instead of understanding that volatility is compressing. The famous saying goes, don’t be a turkey.

The same dynamic exists across the interest rate and FX markets where we have had central banks pretend that the excess government spending in the system doesn’t exist and have allowed short-end real rates to fall for years now.

1-year real rates in the US have been flirting with negative territory for a while now, and as the Fed pauses into an oil shock, we are seeing additional pressure on the system as the policy error pushes long-end rates up.

The same dynamic exists in Japan right now where the BoJ is allowing real rates to sit in negative territory as long-end rates rise:

Long-end rates across every major country are now moving in a single coordinated fashion because of how cross-collateralized every economy has become due to global trade. Central banks are forced to track in lockstep with the Fed in order to export their goods to the United States. Every country has now linked arms and it’s all one trade.

And the US current account has been moving to an extreme we have never seen before. This is a real-time reflection of the impact of Chinese economic warfare as they suppress the value of their currency to export cheap goods to the entire world.

As social media has taken a dominant stance in financial markets since COVID, it has used attention as its currency. The result is that everyone has become desensitized to the actual systemic risks building under the surface as clickbait headlines constantly flash across the screen. AI has taken this environment and amplified it so that the news is tailored exactly to your cognitive biases and delusions are handcrafted for each person.

AI is creating unparalleled progress across every domain, but the unintended consequence of this is the compressing of the tails. AI functions as a form of leverage in the system that empowers those with specialized knowledge but can amplify unintended risks.

My entire point here is that AI is both speeding up the entire system and desensitizing people to the underlying risks. We are seeing the impact of this in real time across social media, financial markets, and the economy.

The economy is beginning to get retooled with a fleet of robots that work 24/7:

And one of the largest universities in the world just booed the CEO of Google off stage for talking to them about AI.

Volatility and risk are compressing across culture, social media, technology, the economy, equities, interest rates, FX, and even down to the intraday ranges in markets with option flow. Small changes transmit through the system with a nonlinear impact in a way that has never been seen. The same driver that is compressing volatility is also creating a continuous feed of disorienting news that is intentionally desensitizing you to the underlying risks. The narrative that is sold is to “monitor the situation.”

The closer you look, the less you see.

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

In today’s stream, Jaymes and I walked through what China is actually doing, why the yuan suppression playbook is functional economic warfare, and what that means for the cross-border flows that determine where your portfolio gets repriced over the next twelve months. By the end of this, you will know which narratives to ignore, which data points actually move markets, and how to position around the Trump-Xi backroom outcomes that the broader market is still mispricing.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. Time lags are the structural feature of complex macro systems and the current oil-to-rates transmission is the cleanest example. Crude spiked, rates lagged, and now rates are catching up while crude consolidates. The headline-to-core CPI question is what determines whether the lag completes or unwinds.

2. Interest rates rising and equities not falling is the cleanest resilience signal of the cycle. The S&P pulled back to the CPI level on the rate impulse, which is exactly the level we mapped last week. Anyone who says rates up equals equities down is ignoring the data of the entire trend.

3. IGV outperforming SMH on the day is the equity long short positioning unwind playing out in real time. Hedge funds are short software and long hardware. The unwind is going to be IGV bid while SMH gets sold, not a violent rotation crash.

4. China is running a coordinated economic warfare playbook: yuan suppression, consumer squeezing, and rare earth choke points. They moved currency intervention from the central bank to state owned banks in 2014 to dodge IMF currency manipulation accusations. The three trillion dollar trade surplus did not show up in reserves because the state banks did the buying.

5. The yuan replacing the dollar is fundamentally a misread of how trade works. Every industrializing country exports to the United States and gets dollars. If you exit the dollar system, you exit global trade, US geography, and the US military defense system. There is no functional alternative.

6. China’s consumption is 38 percent of GDP and investment is 42 percent. The US is 68 percent consumption and 24 percent investment. That gap is the structural setup of the entire China playbook. China crushes its consumer to subsidize factories and exports.

7. Hyperliquid making new highs while Bitcoin lags is the uncorrelated returns signal. The Circle and Coinbase AQA V2 catalyst plus the regulatory clarity through ETF launches confirms the structural setup. The 37 dollar stop with new ATH upside is intact and the institutional flow is building.

8. The Larry Ellison Oracle thesis is structurally underpriced because narratives lag price. Ellison owns 40 percent of an S&P 500 company and is swinging his entire net worth on the macro AI capex bet. Once Oracle rips to 400, the narrative shifts and everyone changes their tune.

ORCL risk reward levels here: LINK

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 19

4.74MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow's Livestream: Matching Your Unique Abilities to Your Trading Strategy and Where We Are in Equities, Rates, and FX

Tomorrow, we will break down how to match your unique abilities to the trading strategy you actually run, and why that mismatch is the single biggest reason most traders underperform their own thesis. We then connect that framework directly to where positioning sits right now in equities, rates, and FX, so you can see how to apply it to the current setup.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

Today, Jaymes and I broke down the dispersion between semiconductors and software, the cybersecurity unwind in Palo Alto and CrowdStrike confirming the February report, and the full earnings setup for Nvidia, Intuit, Workday, Home Depot, and Lowe's this week. The SMH ETF is melting up with implied vol rising at the same time as price rises, which is the commodity-like price action that only happens when capital is forced to participate. Inflation risk is still greater than recession risk, stocks over bonds remains the framework, and the entire question of the week is whether Nvidia delivers the AI capex affirmation the market needs.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. The SMH ETF is functioning like a commodity with implied vol rising alongside price. In a normal equity setup, vol rises when price falls. In SMH right now, vol is rising as price rises, which is the same dynamic crude shows when traders are forced to buy calls to cover exposure. Companies and capital cannot afford to not be long the AI build out, which mechanically forces them into the same names. That is a commodity flow pattern overlaid on equities.

2. The IGV dispersion thesis is playing out exactly as I laid out in the February report on cybersecurity. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike were sold indiscriminately with the broader software complex on the AI disruption thesis. Both are now ripping to new highs as the dispersion separates winners from losers. The names with proprietary data moats are emerging as the winners. The ones without are staying suppressed.

3. IGV implied vol is at the same level as January, which means the market is pricing a very wide outcome range for software. When vol stays elevated this long without resolving in either direction, you have a positioning setup where any earnings catalyst that injects clarity into the moat question forces a massive vol crush. The Intuit print this week is the catalyst to watch.

4. Nvidia earnings this week determine the next leg of the AI capex flow. Watch for any signal from Jensen on China developments. If geopolitical risk in the AI space drops further after the Trump-Xi meeting, that is an immediate bid across the entire complex. Positioning is heavily long Nvidia, which means the bar is high for the report to extend the move. But the broader capex flow is what matters more than the single name.

5. PURR continues to be the cleanest expression of the Hyperliquid thesis with no VC overhang and no aligned promoters. No VCs got an early allocation because there was no allocation. Anyone with public commentary on Hyperliquid is not paid to pump it. The absence of coordinated promotion is the cleanest signal that the value proposition is structurally underpriced. Goldman Sachs initiating a position and a single buyer taking a million shares last week are the early institutional confirmations.

6. SPY versus RSP concentration is widening into Nvidia earnings, which is characteristic of a melt-up. The top names are absorbing the marginal flow because the AI capex theme is concentrated there. The equal-weighted index will lag as long as that concentration continues. Late-stage melt-ups feature this exact pattern and the unwind happens when rates spike or positioning catches offside.

7. Inflation risk is still greater than recession risk, which means stocks over bonds remains the framework. Headline CPI is ticking up, core is not transmitting yet. Inflation swaps are sitting at the highs while real rates compress. As long as the Fed stays inactive into rising inflation expectations, real rates fall and capital keeps moving out the risk curve. The melt up extends until the transmission breaks.

8. The two main sectors to watch for the consumer transmission are housing and staples through Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart earnings. Mortgage rates ticking up is putting marginal pressure on home builders. Home Depot and Lowe’s move in lockstep with the home builder complex. Walmart prints give the cleanest read on food inflation through groceries. These earnings confirm or refute the consumer resilience thesis underlying the broader credit cycle framework.

Slide Deck and Playbooks:

Here are all the decks and charts from today’s livestream: Positioning breakdown, earnings analysis, and TSMC asymmetry for chip buildout.

Cfr Tsmc Capital Cycle Geopolitics

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Cfr Earnings Week May19 22 2026

402KB ∙ PDF file

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Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 18

2.58MB ∙ PDF file

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Narrative Arc Deck

41.5MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow's Livestream: Is China Trying to Become the Next World Power and How Are They Attacking the Global Stage Through Economic Warfare

Tomorrow, I break down how China is actively trying to become the next world power and the specific economic warfare tactics they are deploying to attack the US and the global stage. Yuan suppression, rare earth controls, dollar substitution narratives, and the AI supply chain dynamics are all part of the same coordinated playbook. I map what is actually happening and what it means for cross-border positioning.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. The rate complex is the operating system of every other market. There is no single interest rate. Fed funds, SOFR, the 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 30 year each price a different question and transmit to different parts of the equity complex, the economy, and FX. SOFR and Fed funds price what the Fed will do. The 2 year prices the policy path with marginal duration. The 5 year is the belly hinge between policy and term premium. The 10 year and 30 year are pure duration. Read them as one system or you miss the actual signal.

2. Coinbase capitulating to Hyperliquid via the AQA V2 is the structural tell that PURR added to the US is coming this month. Coinbase ignored Hyperliquid for years, and the AQA V2 announcement with Circle’s commitment to deploying USDC on Hyperliquid is a functional capitulation. PURR is up roughly 20% on the day and Hyperliquid is finally diverging higher from Bitcoin. The setup is not priced in yet..

I have been laying out the PURR thesis for months now here:

3. SOFR contracts are pricing 12bps of hikes between now and December 2027. That is the entire forward curve. The Z6 and Z7 contracts have moved from pricing cuts to pricing marginal hikes as inflation swaps tick higher. The Fed is not actually going to hike. They are going to pause into this, which forces real rates lower. The mispricing in the forward curve is the trade. Watching SOFR alone tells you what the entire rate complex is doing because every other rate is downstream.

4. The 30 year nominal is at 5 percent, the 30 year real is at 2.5 percent. Both are at the upper end of their multi year ranges. Despite that, REITs are barely off all time highs, homebuilders are holding levels, and the broad equity complex is at new highs. This is the cleanest tell that the system is not breaking under restrictive rates. The 30 year is doing what it does, and the economy is absorbing it.

5. Short end inflation swaps are higher than long end inflation swaps. The 1 year is at 3.3, the 30 year is below it. That curve shape tells you the market is pricing the current inflation impulse as a near term phenomenon and not a structural repricing. If crude continues to bid and core CPI starts transmitting, the 2s10s inflation swap curve will steepen further. Watch that curve. When it turns inverted to negative, that is the early warning for a bigger inflation cycle.

6. The fact that interest rates are rising and equities are not falling is the cleanest tell of resilience. The system is taking direct rate punches and not moving. XLI, XLF, and the small cap IWC are all holding new high territory while the long end is at the upper range. Industrials, financials, and small caps are the three rate-sensitive complexes, and all three are bid. That tells you the underlying economy can withstand much higher rates than the current setup implies.

7. Real rates are driving the short end. The Fed is choosing inaction into the inflation impulse, which is mechanically the liquidity mechanism. The attribution analysis on the 2 year shows inflation expectations driving the recent move up, not real rates. The Fed is not taking an active stance. They are letting it run. That inaction equals real rates falling, which is the engine of the credit cycle melt up. Once real rates print negative on the 1 year, the next leg activates.

8. The IWC small cap ETF rallying while rates rise is the signal you do not want to short equities. Small caps have the highest sensitivity to the underlying economy and to financing costs. When they rally through a rate impulse, growth is structurally stronger than the rate move can offset. Combined with industrials and financials holding new highs, this is the cleanest cross sector confirmation that the credit cycle is intact.

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Here is the slide deck from today’s livestream:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 14

11.7MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow's Livestream: Weekly Wrap: Positioning, Volatility, S&P Levels, and Sector Rotations Post Trump-Xi

Tomorrow, Jaymes and I will do the weekly wrap. We pull together everything we covered this week and connect it to positioning and volatility, then map specific levels in the S&P 500 and the sector rotations, setting up as the Trump-Xi meetings in China reshape the cross-border flow framework.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

See the full thread on the credit cycle I referenced in the video here: LINK

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. 80 percent of returns in most asset classes come from macro. Every individual stock and the broad market decomposes into market returns, sector returns, and fundamental returns. Market and sector returns are macro driven. Fundamentals stack on top. If you can map the macro regime correctly, you are already capturing 80 percent of the available return before you even pick a name. That is why the entire framework starts at the macro level and works down.

2. Melt ups are not driven by sentiment or euphoria. They are driven by liquidity and credit. Sentiment can move a single low float stock. It cannot move an entire market. What drives broad based melt ups is the combination of financial market liquidity expanding and credit being injected into the underlying economy at the same time. Both of those are happening right now, and AI is the reason both pipes are open simultaneously.

3. AI is functionally injecting credit into the economy without a bank. That is the single most underpriced macro variable. When AI lets you spin up a company, market it, and build a brand with less upfront capital, that is a liquidity impulse. You need less capital to start a business, which is a supply and demand shift in capital itself. On the financial market side, 0dte options and the explosion of new ETFs are doing the same thing at the trading layer. Both sides are accelerating at the same time.

4. Real interest rates are 30 basis points from making a negative print. That is the chart that determines the next leg of the melt up. When real rates go negative, holding cash mechanically loses purchasing power. Large players borrow and deploy because they get paid to take debt in real terms. This forces capital systematically out the risk curve into small caps, high yield, and the riskier assets like crypto. The 2021 setup was negative four percent real rates. We are not at those levels yet, but the path is set.

5. Money is not a thing. It is a web of asset liability relationships. Your dollar is your asset and the government’s liability. Your bank deposit is your asset and the bank’s liability. A treasury bill is your asset and a liability to the government. There is no fixed definition of money because there is no one enforcing it. Once you understand money this way, you stop thinking about price in nominal terms and start thinking in real purchasing power terms.

6. Every asset has either duration risk, credit risk, or both. That is what drives the risk curve. Duration risk is the uncertainty of real purchasing power over time. Credit risk is the uncertainty of nominal repayment. Long term treasuries are pure duration. High yield bonds are pure credit. Equities are a mix. When you can decompose every asset into these two factors, you can map exactly how it moves in different macro regimes.

7. Macro liquidity is the price of money times the quantity of money. Both are changing right now in the same direction. Price of money is interest rates, especially real rates. Quantity of money is bills, reserves, private sector liquidity, and government spending. Most liquidity indexes mix these together poorly and miss the destination of the flow. The yield curve regime is the cleanest synthesis of both because the curve is itself an input into liquidity and the destination of capital across the risk curve.

8. Crises happen through asset liability mismatches plus an FX or rate shock, not through euphoria fading. The textbook view of expansion, euphoria, contraction, panic misses the actual mechanism. Crises occur when the asset side and liability side of the system get out of alignment and then a rate or currency move shocks the imbalance into repricing. Right now, the data shows no asset liability mismatch. Mortgage delinquencies did not rise through one of the fastest hiking cycles in history, which is the cleanest signal that the system is not mismatched.

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Here is the slide deck from today’s livestream:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 13

13MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow’s Livestream: The Interest Rate Complex: Risk Reward Across the Curve, Inflation Risk, Curve Regimes, and the Impact on Equities

Tomorrow, I will do a comprehensive breakdown of the interest rate complex and the risk-reward of rates across the curve. I walk through inflation risk, the curve regimes, and the specific transmission into equities. This is how you read the rate complex in real time and connect it directly to positioning.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. AI is both an input into macro liquidity and operating within macro liquidity. Treating AI as just a symptom misses the entire flow. AI is retooling the production function of the economy at the same time as it is functioning as the largest cross border capital flow of 2024-2026. People who only model central bank balance sheets are missing the actual driver because AI capex is changing the speed of capital deployment in a way that no traditional liquidity index captures.

2. The first Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) launched today. This is bullish for PURR, not bearish. Regulators allowing the ETF tells you the regulatory path forward is clearing. PURR is no longer the only access point, but PURR has tools an ETF cannot match: share issuance and buyback optionality, a credit facility, and the leadership network to bridge centralized and decentralized players. The bar is now higher for PURR leadership, but the optionality is larger.

3. PURR leadership’s job now is to provide value in excess of the underlying token, which an ETF structurally cannot do. Every other treasury company in crypto has only diluted shareholders at the expense of long term holders. PURR has actively bought back shares when trading at a discount, which is fundamentally different. With the credit facility, the leadership network, and the TradeXYZ validator partnership, PURR can stack returns on top of spot hype that an ETF cannot replicate.

4. AI capex is the single largest cross border capital flow of 2024-2026, and where it lands dictates every other macro variable. Foreigners are bidding US mega cap tech because the US is the center of the AI infrastructure build out. That cross border flow is why US equity valuations are at all time highs in human history while every other major equity index has underperformed. Stop treating AI capex as just a sector flow. It is a macro flow.

5. FX will signal the next bear market before equities do. Foreigners are buying US mega caps without hedging dollar risk because they assume the dollar will stay strong. When the dollar falls enough to drag on their returns, they have to sell US equities to repatriate. That is the same mechanism that drove the 2025 tariff shock. Watch the DXY and the cross currency basis for the early signal.

6. Every country’s impossible trinity position forces pressure out of a different pipe. US: open capital plus floating FX plus AI capex absorbs flows into mega cap tech. Japan: open capital plus yield curve management plus Ministry of Finance spending forces FX as the release valve. Europe: open capital plus restrictive ECB plus short energy means the equity sectors absorb the pressure through underperformance. China: closed capital plus fixed FX forces the trade balance to absorb everything.

7. CPI came in hot on headline, contained on core. Inflation swaps are rising, which is exactly the setup that drags bonds and pulls equity multiples just enough to shake out weak hands. Equities down marginally after a 17 percent rally is not a market in trouble. It is a healthy washout. The CPI print does not change the structural thesis. Crude bidding plus inflation expectations rising plus the Fed pausing is the exact transmission that keeps real rates falling.

8. Crude is the swing variable for the next two weeks. If crude breaks down, the biggest short squeezes set up in DAX, Euro Stoxx, gold, silver, and copper because those are the assets most leveraged to the energy import structure. If crude continues bid, you get continued range trading in equities with the long end dragging on multiples. Either path is bullish at the structural level. The timing is the question.

Slide Deck and Playbooks:

Here is the slide deck from today’s stream:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 12

5.63MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow's Livestream: Mapping Macro Liquidity and How AI Is Changing the Transmission Mechanism

Tomorrow, I will map where we are in macro liquidity right now and walk through why AI is changing the transmission mechanism dynamics. Traditional liquidity indexes miss the actual flow because AI capex is now retooling how capital is deployed through the system. I break down the real liquidity framework and what it means for positioning.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

(Paid subscriber section is at the bottom of this report)

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. The impossible trinity is the framework that ties every macro move together. Every country can only run two of three: independent monetary policy, capital mobility, and FX stability. China caps capital and FX, which forces its trade balance to absorb everything. The US runs open capital, sovereign policy, and a floating dollar, which only works because the dollar is the global reserve currency. Every other country sits between those two extremes and is functionally cross collateralized with the US.

2. The US is the center of every other country’s impossible trinity. That privilege creates dependency on the rest of the world to recycle dollars back into Treasuries or US equities. The Fed’s reaction function is the global cost of capital benchmark. Treasuries are the safe asset that every other country’s capital flight runs toward. When the Fed pauses into inflation and lets real rates fall, every other country has to react, which is why the entire global rate complex is moving in correlation right now.

3. Japan capped two pipes with yield curve control and the yen took the full load. That is why the dollar yen moved from 100 to 160. When you constrain rates and keep equities calm, FX is the only release valve. The Nikkei is now valued above its 1980 market cap to GDP levels because Ministry of Finance spending is replacing yield curve control as the main mechanism. The yen is going to be where the next major unwind shows up, but we are not there yet.

4. The dollar is going to keep falling until the returns on the dollar drag on foreigners enough to force selling. Everyone is structurally long dollars because they assume they can always get them from the Fed or from trade. If the dollar falls fast enough, foreigners have to sell US equities to repatriate, which is the same mechanic that triggered the 2025 tariff shock. We are not at that level yet, but it is one of the two scenarios that ends the melt up.

5. The other scenario that ends the melt up is long end rates blowing out and delinquencies rising in the AI sector. Most of the credit growth in this cycle is AI capex debt. For that to break, you would need defaults across data center financing, but the debt just got issued and demand is still accelerating. Neither end of cycle scenario is showing up in the data right now, which is why I stay positioned for continuation.

6. Real rates are still the entire macro story. Two year real rates rose during COVID, because the Fed didn’t keep pace with inflation. In 2008 they rose because the Fed was behind. This time the supply side is being retooled by AI at the same time as real rates fall, which is why valuations can keep expanding without breaking.

7. The ECB is being more restrictive than the Fed because Europe is short crude. That is the entire reason DAX and Eurostoxx have not made new all time highs. Once crude falls and the ECB pivots, you get the catch up trade where European stocks rally hard. Watch the Euribor curve for the first sign of that flip. Until then, the rate differential keeps capital flowing into euros while suppressing European equities.

8. The Qualcomm trade hit our channel today and we trimmed half the position. Jaymes called this at $135 a few weeks ago. False breakdown on the long term chart, every other semi competitor was ripping, and the company was forgotten by FinTwit. The leaps are now up around 700%. The framework worked because we stacked the macro regime, the SMH sector flow, and the idiosyncratic mispricing. Stack edges, hold the trade, and let the framework compound.

See the recent video by Jaymes here:

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Here is the slide deck from today’s stream:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 11

11MB ∙ PDF file

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FX Drivers, AI Flows, and Sector Flows on a Cross-Border Basis

Tomorrow I map FX drivers, AI flows, and sector flows for every major country on a cross border basis. Every country sits in a different position on the impossible trinity, which means each one has different FX drivers, different AI exposure, and different sector flows that absorb the macro pressure. This is how you turn the impossible trinity framework into specific positioning across global equities, FX, and rates.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

I laid out my public view on the addition of the first Hyperliquid ETF and its impact on PURR here: LINK. Important points below.

Proprietary Macro Research For Paid Subscribers:

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LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. Real GDP at 2 percent and nominal at 6 percent is a strong macro regime, period. Even if you assume the data is lagged, getting from 2 percent to recession requires a sustained deceleration that takes time. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast is at 3.7 percent. Fixed investment alone is adding almost 100bps. None of that is consistent with the recession narrative that has been getting cooked for two years.

2. Consumption is 68 percent of GDP and the personal income and outlays data set is the monthly proxy for it. When the data prints monthly and matches GDP almost exactly, you can nowcast quarterly GDP in real time. Every major hedge fund uses credit card data on top of that to refine the estimate. The idea that there is a “hidden recession” not showing up in the data is a tell that someone has not built their own models.

3. We are in reflation, not stagflation. Growth and inflation are both positive, which is the regime where equities rally. Stagflation requires growth decelerating into rising inflation. We do not have that. Real spending is positive, discretionary spending is resilient, and inflation is contained outside of energy. Equities do not rally during stagflation. Equities are rallying.

4. Personal interest payments as a percentage of outlays are at highs, but delinquencies are not rising. That is the cleanest consumer resilience signal in the data. If consumers were getting crushed by debt service, discretionary spending would fall first before delinquencies spiked. We are seeing neither. The mortgage market is more resilient than people want to admit because the 30 year fixed structure locked in low payments for the majority of homeowners.

5. Government spending at 17 percent of GDP plus a 5 percent fiscal deficit plus a negative trade balance is exactly why long end rates are stuck in range. Long end rates price the term premium, which is driven by issuance composition and inflation expectations. As long as the deficit stays elevated and the trade balance stays negative, long end rates have a structural floor. They are not breaking down to 2 percent without a fundamental shift in the fiscal picture.

6. The Fed letting short term real rates run lower than they should is what is creating the dollar weakness. Short term real rates lower than the structural level forces capital out of the dollar and into risk assets. This is why the dollar is bearish, EUR is bid, MXN is making new highs, and the carry trade is at extremes across G10. EWW remains the cleanest equity expression of the Mexico flow.

7. Headline CPI matters more in Europe and Japan because they are net importers of crude. Core matters more in the US because we are a net energy exporter. This is why the dollar rallied during the recent geopolitical shock. Higher crude transmits faster into European inflation than US inflation, which moves rate differentials in favor of the dollar. As crude fades, that flow reverses and the dollar resumes the structural decline.

8. The Fed allowing inflation to seep into the system without hiking is the liquidity impulse that keeps capital moving out the risk curve. Inflation rising plus the Fed pausing equals real rates falling, which mechanically forces capital into equities. SMH melting up today is the AI capex transmission. The Russell holding range is the small cap capex transfer recipient. The credit cycle melt up extends as long as this regime stays in place.

Slide Deck and Playbooks

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 06

13.4MB ∙ PDF file

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All of the models:

Models: (These TradingView models are the ones that I use every day. If you are trying to understand how to use them, just plug them into AI and ask for an explanation.)

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/2f5nDvsW/

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/HbKBeNCc/

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/aJ6Sy5b8/

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/pa0No7P2/

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/2taQ63im/

• https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kZ8JijHH/ (Models from my friend Alfie https://substack.com/@alfiekerswell)

• If you don’t have a Bloomberg, the CME Tools are your best friend:

  • CVOL CME Tool: LINK

  • QuickStrike: LINK

  • Liquidation Nation: LINK

Cfr Stir Replication Playbook (2)

993KB ∙ PDF file

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Livestream Tomorrow:

I’m traveling tomorrow morning and won’t be able to do the livestream at the regular time, but I will be doing a livestream later in the day. I am just unsure about the time right now. I will send out an email when I know and when the livestream starts.

Thanks

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.

The proprietary macro research for paid subscribers is just below the summary and slide deck from today’s livestream. I also provided the code for the internal STIR model I run.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. Until you break a multi day consolidation range to the downside, this trend does not turn. Pulling back into a prior consolidation range and finding bids off trapped sellers is the same playbook we have seen for two months. There are no inventory longs trapped overhead. The range below is full of trapped sellers who become future buyers as they cover. That dynamic flips supply and demand in a single session, which is why every micro dip rips back to highs within 24 hours. -

2. A liquidation break is the most bullish setup in a maturing trend, not the bearish one. When sellers force a 1.5 to 2 percent whoosh through prior consolidation ranges, longs puke and shorts cover. That clears the supply overhead and creates a vacuum. The next leg up has no resistance because the weak hands are gone. If you have been locked out of this rally, that liquidation break is the buyable opportunity.-

3. Cross asset vol has collapsed across the VIX, MOVE, and CVIX simultaneously, and the correlation between them is rising. When equity vol, rate vol, and FX vol all collapse together, that is a macro factor signal, not an idiosyncratic one. It tells you capital is moving out the risk curve across every asset class at the same time. That is the regime that mechanically forces vol targeting funds and risk parity funds to lever up.

4. The inelastic market hypothesis is the amplifier nobody is mapping. One dollar of passive index flow lifts the market by five dollars because passive investors buy and never sell. The S&P top seven stocks now control a massive part of the index. Every dollar of passive flow gets concentrated into those seven names, which is why the equal weighted RSP is still below all time highs while SPY is at highs. When we eventually get a real selloff, that same mechanic works in reverse and makes the move violent. has a lot of great work on this. If you are trying to conceptualize this idea, reference 1 hour and 2 mins in the livestream.

5. The IGV up SMH down divergence is the equity long short positioning unwind in real time. Hedge funds are positioned long SMH and short IGV. The unwind is not going to be a violent SMH crash. It will be an orderly bid in IGV that drags the index higher while SMH consolidates. Microsoft holding flat as the institutional anchor for OpenAI and Azure tells you the unwind has more room to run.

6. The carry trade complex is extreme across every asset class right now. Yen funded dollar long positions, peso longs, EUR/JPY, the entire G10 carry index sits at extremes. As long as cross asset vol stays compressed, the carry trade keeps paying. The risk is not that the carry trade fades. The risk is that vol blows out somewhere and forces a coordinated unwind across every leveraged position simultaneously.

7. CTA positioning is at all time highs, which works on the upside and works on the downside. The CTA index just hit a new high. Trend followers are max long S&P, max long gold, and at extremes on every major asset. That is the marginal flow pushing the melt up further. It also creates the asymmetric risk: when CTAs unwind, they unwind everything at the same time across every market.

8. Capital is moving out the risk curve. High quality versus low quality factor down 14 percent, stagflation factor down 14 percent, OpenAI ecosystem leading attribution. Liquidation Nation’s factor breakdown shows the market is paying capital to take risk and punishing capital that hides in defensive trades. The OpenAI ecosystem is the single largest factor driving returns over the past month. That is the signature of a credit cycle melt-up funneling into a specific set of beneficiaries.

Slide Deck and Playbooks:

Here is the slide deck from today’s livestream:

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 05

12.5MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow's Livestream: Full Economic Picture: Connecting Growth and Inflation to Long-Term Interest Rates

Tomorrow, I lay out the full economic picture and connect every major growth and inflation data point to long-term interest rates. Long-end rates price long-term nominal GDP, which means they reflect the market’s view on growth plus inflation over the cycle. I walk through the labor market, capex, productivity, ISMs, services data, headline and core inflation, trimmed mean, and inflation expectations to map exactly where the long end should sit and where it actually is. The gap between those two is the trade. Plus what NFP on Friday means for the framework heading into next week.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

Paid Subscriber Section: Proprietary Macro Research

I told everyone today that I would be sharing part of the proprietary dashboard I run to monitor and map interest rates (link). You can find the code and instructions to run it below.

Once you pull the data, you can feed this PDF into your AI or manually go through and copy/paste the code yourself:

Cfr Stir Replication Playbook

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Read more

The paid subscriber section is at the bottom of this report, where I cover the proprietary research.

LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:

Subscribe now

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points

1. The world is short vol. Non-participation is the greatest risk in a system where change compounds faster than capital can react. In 2021, holding cash meant losing 22 percent of purchasing power as real rates went negative. The 2026 analog is the obsolescence tax from AI. If you are not integrating AI into your business, portfolio, or capital allocation framework, you are functionally short the system. The compounding rate of AI capability is faster than the rate at which holding cash got punished four years ago.

2. The intelligence age is the new negative real interest rate. A six month software build now takes three weeks. That changes how much capital companies need, how fast they can deploy it, and how quickly they take market share from competitors who do not adapt. Same mechanism as 2021, different input. In 2021 it was monetary. In 2026 it is technological. The output is the same: capital is forced into equities because non-participation has a compounding negative return.

3. AI is no longer a tool inside a production function. It is the new production function. The gap between Mag 7 and the broad S&P has blown out since the ChatGPT launch because the market is rewarding companies rewriting their entire production stack around AI. Palantir is the cleanest example as the one stop shop for non technical companies to integrate AI into their decision systems. Q4 2025 commercial bookings up 103 percent. Palantir is the picks and shovels for the production layer rewriting.

4. The 600 billion dollar question is whether the AI capex prepayment ever pays off. NVIDIA reported quarterly data center revenue of 47 billion. Cumulative capex commitment across the hyperscalers is closer to a trillion. Actual revenue from AI services is roughly 50 billion. If the run rate from OpenAI, Anthropic, and the rest never catches up, the entire valuation premium across the sector unwinds. CoreWeave is the cleanest expression of this trade because the stock is the wedge between forward GPU lease commitments and ultimate AI revenue.

5. The obsolescence tax is faster than inflation. Companies and individuals not adapting to AI bleed at a higher rate than holding cash bled in 2021. The Goldman Sachs AI beneficiaries versus AI at risk index is the cleanest visualization. The spread is at extremes since 2025 because the market is pricing the devaluation of capital not exposed to the AI cycle. If you are not on sides, you are losing money in real terms even with positive nominal real rates.

6. AI is no longer a financial cycle. It is economic statecraft. Every country needs its own AI production stack, which transmits directly into geopolitical risk. The semiconductor index at highs while the Shanghai composite is at lows is the cleanest expression of the AI arms race priced into asset markets. China actively wants to close that spread, which raises the probability of more aggressive geopolitical action across Taiwan and the broader supply chain. The TSMC chokehold transmits directly into hyperliquid, perpetuals, and cross border flows.

7. The credit cycle melt up always sows the seeds of its own demise. We are walking the thin line right now. Real rates near zero, AI capex build out, equity valuations at the highest level in US history on price to sales, S&P dividend yield at lows last seen in 2000. If AI capex run rate disappoints, valuations get crushed and the IPO window closes. If real rates turn negative on top of the current cycle, you get a 2021 style melt up that compounds further. The two outcomes are diverging fast.

8. IGV up 200bps and SMH down 100bps today is the equity long short positioning unwind in real time. Hedge funds are positioned long SMH and short IGV. Today’s geopolitical shock from crude moving up should have hit the entire tech complex evenly. Instead it hit hardware and lifted software. That divergence is mechanical, not fundamental. Microsoft holding flat as the institutional anchor for OpenAI and Azure tells you the unwind has more room to run as IGV reprices higher and SMH reprices lower.

Slide Decks From Livestream:

Macro Thesis 2026 05 02

6.82MB ∙ PDF file

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Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 03

11.9MB ∙ PDF file

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Here is the report I referenced on the timing for WHEN AI begins to unravel the labor market:

You can follow all of work here:

Market Macro Hub

Your home for digestible global macro insights. Clear, actionable analysis of the macro environment every week.

By Joe Olashugba

Tomorrow’s Livestream: Cross Asset Positioning and Equity Long Short Positioning Inside the AI Compression Trade

Tomorrow, I will map cross-asset positioning and equity long-short positioning as they directly connect to the AI compression of the tails framework I laid out today.

TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK

Paid Subscriber Section: Proprietary Macro Research

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The entire world is short volatility, and it has to be. In a system where change compounds faster than capital can react, non-participation is the greater risk. Sitting out is not safety. It is a slow, certain form of loss.

The 2021 cycle made this explicit. Real interest rates were negative. Holding cash meant losing purchasing power every month while the underlying economy was being retooled at a pace without precedent. Digital infrastructure, supply chains, social media distribution, e-commerce algorithms, and global integration all advanced simultaneously. The cost of conservatism was visible in real time. The participants who refused to be long change were quietly liquidated by inflation and obsolescence.

There are two paths to losing money. The first is being so conservative that you fail to adapt to structural change and watch your purchasing power erode. The second is being so aggressive that the eventual bear market washes you out and destroys the compounding you spent years building. Survival does not exist at either extreme. It exists in intentional adaptation. The discipline is knowing when to be long change, and knowing when the system has reached an unsustainable moment in which macro constraints begin forcing participants to sell the positions they have held longest and loved most.

2021 Was A Liquidity Cycle. 2026 Is A Technology Cycle.

The cycle that made cash a losing position in 2021 is repeating itself, only the driver has rotated. In 2021 the constraint was monetary. Real interest rates were negative and capital was pushed out the risk curve by mandate. Today, I believe it is the same mechanism with a different input. The constraint is technological. AI is restructuring the production function of every industry at once, and the participants who fail to engage with it are forfeiting their edge the same way cash forfeited purchasing power. Software margins, distribution channels, supply chains, hiring decisions, and customer acquisition curves are all being rebuilt around models in real time. The input has changed. The mechanism has not.

The cost of sitting out AI is not the slow erosion that defined 2021. In my view, it is competitive obsolescence, and it compounds faster than inflation ever did. A firm that fails to deploy AI loses its cost structure to one that does. A portfolio that fails to own AI exposure loses its return profile to one that does. The decision not to participate is a short position on adaptation, and the position bleeds every quarter, every product cycle, every hiring round. The conservative trap from the survival curve applies with greater force here than it did under negative real rates. Inflation was a slow tax on capital. AI obsolescence is a fast one.

And yet we are seeing the system at the highest valuations in modern history. The SPX dividend yield has compressed to levels that map directly onto the late-cycle dynamic of 2021. The explanatory variable has changed. The compression has not. The marginal AI buyer has already bought.

My Main Point:

The point here is straightforward. We have a very clear analog to 2021, with one substitution. In 2021 the primary constraint was monetary. Today we still have monetary support, with real rates hovering near the zero bound, but the new constraint is technological. AI is forcing capital into equities the same way negative real rates did four years ago.

As I have been laying out for months, every signal points to a credit cycle melt-up unfolding in real time. And no country can afford to let its economy slip into recession right now, because China will use any opening to complete a final hollowing out of the Western industrial base. The credit cycle is no longer just a financial cycle. It is a piece of economic statecraft. Letting it break is not a policy choice anyone can afford to make. I would strongly encourage you to read these reports on the topic!

Walking The Thin Line: How AI Is Compressing The Tails

Tomorrow I’m walking through the thin line the market is currently walking. The credit cycle is melting up, AI is forcing capital out the risk curve, and policymakers cannot afford a recession with China waiting on the other side. Every one of those forces compresses the tails further.

I strongly believe that this is one of the most important periods of time in history, which is why I am doing these livestreams every single day. You can always find the recordings of the daily livestreams here: LINK

Here is the slide deck from the livestream I recorded on Friday (LINK), which explains WHY interest rates cause the rise and fall of nations. I also laid out every resource in the slide deck you would want to dig into if you’re the type of person who wants to build real knowledge about how money actually flows in the economic system.

Capital Flows Livestream 2026 05 03

11.3MB ∙ PDF file

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Tomorrow’s Livestream: LINK

The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.