<![CDATA[Capital Flows: Trade Write-Ups]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/s/tradeshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vifO!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffeddfb10-4e40-4262-a13b-55403e558f18_1024x1024.pngCapital Flows: Trade Write-Upshttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/s/tradesSubstackMon, 04 May 2026 10:08:19 GMT<![CDATA[Trade Write Up: Interest Rate Volatility ]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-interest-rate-volatilityhttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-interest-rate-volatilityThu, 30 Oct 2025 15:54:34 GMTTrade Write Up: Interest Rate Volatility

I explained the initial logic of the short end in these reports:

This is setting the stage for the next trade in my view.

Trade Breakdown:

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]]><![CDATA[My Asymmetric Macro Bet: The next big trade]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/my-asymmetric-macro-bet-the-nexthttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/my-asymmetric-macro-bet-the-nextThu, 23 Oct 2025 14:34:26 GMTMy Asymmetric Macro Bet: The next big trade

I laid out my macro views for the credit cycle in this video, which is already in the process of coming to fruition. We are seeing flows move in lockstep with the thesis. What I want to cover now are the big asymmetrical bets for the macro regime that I am personally taking as we move into the end of the year.

The Big Trades:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: FX, FOMC, and Real Purchasing Power]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-fx-fomc-and-real-purchasinghttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-fx-fomc-and-real-purchasingWed, 17 Sep 2025 03:13:13 GMTTrade Write-Up: FX and Interest Rates

I am going to be building on the ideas laid out here. Please review this for the trade idea below.

I laid out the initial logic of the dollar in the credit cycle report (link). We have seen a rally in EURUSD in confluence with the logic I laid out last week.

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: HYPD and SONN Update - Video Breakdown ]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-hypd-and-sonn-updatehttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-hypd-and-sonn-updateTue, 16 Sep 2025 20:31:43 GMTTrade Write-Up: HYPD and SONN Update

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: Big Bet, HYPD Update, And New Trade]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-big-bet-hypd-updatehttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-big-bet-hypd-updateMon, 15 Sep 2025 14:08:10 GMTTrade Write-Up: Big Bet, HYPD Update, And New Trade

I laid out the thesis when we were trading in the $6-7 dollar range. Since this time, we have rallied over 100%. I want to provide an update and then explain the next bet I am thinking about.

I would encourage everyone to review the credit cycle report I laid out here, explaining the liquidity context for WHERE we are:

Update on HYPD and New Bet:

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]]><![CDATA[The Big Macro/Crypto Bet I am taking: VIDEO BREAKDOWN]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/the-big-macrocrypto-bet-i-am-taking-d2chttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/the-big-macrocrypto-bet-i-am-taking-d2cWed, 10 Sep 2025 06:15:56 GMTThe Big Macro/Crypto Bet I am taking: VIDEO BREAKDOWN

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]]><![CDATA[The Big Macro/Crypto Bet I am taking]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/the-big-macrocrypto-bet-i-am-takinghttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/the-big-macrocrypto-bet-i-am-takingTue, 09 Sep 2025 15:25:19 GMTThe Big Macro/Crypto Bet I am taking

Bitcoin functions as a release valve for macro liquidity, absorbing capital when traditional financial systems are constrained by regulation and unable to channel excess flows efficiently. Blockchain technology amplifies this dynamic by disintermediating legacy gatekeepers, creating parallel markets that operate outside the jurisdiction of centralized authorities.

Treasury companies sit at the center of this transition, bridging regulated financial structures and unregulated crypto markets by buying digital assets outright and functioning as capital structures that can employ leverage. In the credit cycle we are in now, capital aggressively prices these treasury companies as they take on large positions, effectively turning them into high-beta proxies for liquidity flows.

The real edge, however, lies not in chasing what everyone is already watching, MSTR and the established BTC and ETH treasury plays, but in getting in early with an informational advantage. The entire question now is simple: what is the next MSTR? The following write-up frames the big bet I am taking, one that is not even on the radar of traditional financial players precisely because they remain fixated on the obvious treasury names, leaving a blind spot where true asymmetry exists.

THE TRADE:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: VIDEO UPDATE ON MACRO FLOWS]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-video-update-on-macrohttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-video-update-on-macroWed, 27 Aug 2025 20:40:14 GMTTrade Write-Up: VIDEO UPDATE ON MACRO FLOWS

The two trade write-ups I reference in the video are here:

Video:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: BITCOIN Flows Analysis and Trade Implications]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-bitcoin-flows-analysishttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-bitcoin-flows-analysisWed, 27 Aug 2025 00:41:40 GMTTrade Write-Up: BITCOIN Flows Analysis and Trade Implications

In this write-up, I am going to lay out the macro context for Bitcoin, HOW we got here, and WHERE we are likely to go. When you understand this context, the trade implications become much clearer.

As a reminder, I explained the global liquidity context for HOW cross-border flows are critical to understand right now. This will directly tie in with Bitcoin because it is a release valve for macro liquidity on an international basis.

I would also review the Bitcoin primer and the connected Tradingview script linked in this report:

The Macro Context:

One of the main ideas I laid out for paid subscribers after Jackson Hole was that the Fed is allowing cuts to be priced into elevated inflation risk and resilient growth. Just remember, Powell can come out at any time and say something explicitly hawkish that would reprice the forward curve. The fact that he isn’t is becoming a clear indication that the Fed is ok with HOW MANY cuts are priced for 2025 and 2026. The steepening in the curve shows the Fed’s inaction being priced as well.

The chart below is the rate of change in 2 year real rates inverted. In simple terms, when we are in a green regime, real rates are putting UPWARD pressure on the price of Bitcoin. There are some lead lags in this, dependent on FX liquidity and how the yield curve is functioning.

However, since 2023, real rates have been moving DOWN, which has been one of the primary drivers in Bitcoin. We remain in a regime where Bitcoin is skewed to the upside. The primary thing we need to manage is the risk of positioning unwinds and deviations from risk asset flows.

Bitcoin began to underperform ES AND show negative returns on an outright basis ever since the rejection from the 124k level. This is why I went neutral in the short term. You will notice that we are no longer in a green regime. Again, you can find the Tradingview script for this here: LINK

Bitcoin Maxi’s refuse to acknowledge that Bitcoin can and does have periods of underperformance against equities when liquidity is contracting. Everyone knows that we are outperforming on the longer-term weekly time horizon: The goal is to map the signals across ALL time horizons so we can moderate our views incrementally. If we began to move into a 2022-type bear market again, there is NO WAY I would be leveraged long and take a drawdown. Even if someone is a long-term hodler, establishing an optimal cost basis is critical.

This brings us to the shorter time horizon and trading implications.

Trade Tensions and Risk Reward:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: OPENING]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-openinghttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-openingTue, 26 Aug 2025 16:23:08 GMTTrade Write-Up: OPENING

I have already laid out the macro views and levels for equities in this report:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Update: Update On Bond and Impact On Equities]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-update-update-on-bond-and-impacthttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-update-update-on-bond-and-impactWed, 13 Aug 2025 14:34:50 GMTTrade Update: Update On Bond and Impact On Equities

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Update: Video Breakdown Of Trades And Macro Views]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-update-video-breakdown-of-tradeshttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-update-video-breakdown-of-tradesFri, 08 Aug 2025 02:09:16 GMTTrade Update: Video Breakdown Of Trades And Macro Views

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: Yield Curve and The Nikkei ]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-yield-curve-and-thehttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-yield-curve-and-theWed, 06 Aug 2025 02:20:32 GMTPlease review the macro video breakdown and connected reports here for context in the trade expressions I am sharing below.

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Up: Shifting Regime From Neutral To The Next Move]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-shifting-regime-fromhttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-shifting-regime-fromTue, 05 Aug 2025 15:32:25 GMTTrade Write-Up: Shifting Regime From Neutral To The Next Move

I have been laying out the tensions for equities and bonds in the following pieces:

As I explained in the Alpha Report yesterday, equities are going to get a lot more difficult over the next month since breadth is normalizing. I turned neutral equities on FOMC day because of some warning signs and we have seen a marginal drawdown that is beginning to create oppurtunity. However, the expression of trade is critical here. See connected video here:

Macro Trades:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write Up: The Macro Trade]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-the-macro-tradehttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-up-the-macro-tradeMon, 04 Aug 2025 00:57:17 GMTFor context, please review the macro report I published here:

And video breakdown here:

Flows Into CPI:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Ups: Geopolitical Risk and Inflation]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-geopolitical-riskhttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-geopolitical-riskSun, 15 Jun 2025 20:11:36 GMTGeopolitical Risk and FOMC:

We are entering a week where two major factors are going to interact with the macro regime: 1) Geopolitical risk and 2) FOMC. These factors are going to interact with the positive growth regime (See Macro Reports on the macro regime: LINK and LINK) we are in which means understanding these catalysts within the proper context will inform the risk reward of all major assets.

We will start with redundancy planning and proper analysis and them move into specific trade ideas.

Redundancy planning and scenario analysis:

First, the context and scenario analysis for crude is here: (if there are issues with downloading, it is available here as well: LINK)

Copy Of Wti Crude Outlook Amid Iran Conflict Escalation – Scenario Analysis
199KB ∙ PDF file
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I expect gap risk at the open given how elevated vol is and the developments in news of the conflict. Outright volatility is very elevated and implied volatility premiums (second panel) are elevated along with the term structure (third panel) and call skew (bottom panel). In other words, people are clearly aware and betting on further upside. This doesn’t mean we can’t have CL rally because as long as physical things are taking place in the oil market, CL can keep rallying. There will be a time to short crude but we are not there yet. We need to see a clearer rejection. If the geopolitical risk accelerates, I expect significant rallies higher. $100 crude is not out of the question but its all about how crude begins to consolidate and how domestic and other international players begin to increase production to meet demand.

Second, the changes in the Strait of Hormuz Statu could begin impacting the Nat Gas market as well. Around 20% of LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran. The context and scenario analysis for Nat Gas is here: (if there are any issues downloading, here is a link as well: LINK)

Iran Israel Conflict Scenarios Impact On Nymex Natural Gas Futures (1)
217KB ∙ PDF file
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Download

We have not seen any type of significant bid in NG yet so if there is complacency, it is likely here. I will be watching it incredibly closely and looking for potential longs.

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Ups: CPI and FOMC Set Up In Bonds]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-cpi-and-fomc-sethttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-cpi-and-fomc-setTue, 10 Jun 2025 15:16:05 GMTAs we move into CPI, we are seeing the Russell and crude rally with a significant amount of strength. This continues to confirm the regime we are in.

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Ups: Short Squeeze]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-short-squeezehttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-short-squeezeMon, 09 Jun 2025 03:02:55 GMTI laid out the macro framework for everything here:

And recorded a video further explaining it here:

Trade Write-Up: Short Squeeze

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Ups: Flows and Levels]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-flows-and-levelshttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-flows-and-levelsFri, 16 May 2025 05:07:45 GMTI wanted to set a quick note out as we move into Friday and the weekend. All of the views have been laid out here:

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]]><![CDATA[Trade Write-Ups: THE NEXT LEVERAGE MACRO BET]]>https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-the-next-leveragehttps://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/trade-write-ups-the-next-leverageMon, 12 May 2025 01:45:21 GMTWe have seen a significant mistake by central banks that will be reverberating through equity and fixed income markets for the next 3 months. I have already laid out initial views here:

Please review the previous trade write-up because it directly plays into this one:

An important reminder, there are now 6 days left to lock in the discounted price on the Substack before further price increases occur later this summer. The links for the discounts are in this article:

Trade Write Up/Leverage Macro Bet:

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