Alpha Report: STIR and Macro Flows

The Fed and taxes

The Big Picture:

In the current macro regime, we are seeing several macro factors that are changing the dynamics surrounding growth and inflation. Bessent has laid these out, and we are in the early innings of the cycle where they are actualized.

Tariffs, Deregulation, Tax Cuts, and Monetary Policy: All of these are functioning as direct inputs into the growth and inflation regime (see video by Trump here: Link)

The tension that is developing is that the speed and strength of each of these factors remain unknown:

I want to specifically focus on the monetary policy side of the equation and how it is impacting growth and inflation.

STIR:

I want to start with the United States and connect HOW AGGRESSIVE the forward curve is pricing relative to what credit spreads and the long end are doing.