Brainstorms: FX, Bonds, BRICS, Geopolitics and S&P500 Earnings

Let's just take it all in

We are going to cover several broad ideas in this article so try to keep up:  

First, let me be clear on my view of growth. I do not believe we will see a negative GDP print in Q4 of this year. Why? The largest line item of GDP (consumption) remains squarely positive on a YoY basis.  

This is not complicated. Initial claims and NFP prints continue to show a resilient labor market that is decelerating from its extreme.  

Here is the deal, we know delinquencies are going to happen because of how much the FED has raised rates. This isn’t a question.