Equity Strategy: Bitcoin & Equities: Late‑Stage Melt‑Up or Crash Setup?

How Liquidity Regimes Drive Correlations, Rotations, and Convexity Across Risk Assets

Bitcoin & Equities: Late‑Stage Melt‑Up or Crash Setup?

This update is split into two parts.

First, for all subscribers, I recorded a short video walking through the current state of Bitcoin, US equities, and the liquidity cycle. If you just want the big picture on how liquidity is driving the BTC / equities relationship right now, start there. It will get you oriented in a few minutes.

Second, for paid subscribers, I’ve included today’s full Flows Report below. In it, I go into the actual plumbing: how dollar liquidity, basis, futures positioning, and cross‑asset flows are evolving beneath the surface, what that’s meant for recent price action in Bitcoin and equities, and how I’m thinking about the forward scenarios from here into FOMC.

Watch the video to get the framework. Read the flows section if you need the positioning map behind the framework and want help translating it into risk decisions.

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Macro Flows Report (The underlying signals that determine risk)