Capital Flows

Capital Flows

Equity Strategy

Equity Strategy: Credit Cycle Drivers For SPY and Bitcoin

Survival Beats Certainty

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Capital Flows
Jan 21, 2026
∙ Paid

Equity Strategy: Credit Cycle Drivers For SPY and Bitcoin

Here’s the replay of the livestream on the credit cycle and the macro “endgame.”

In the session, I walked through how credit cycles actually progress, what typically breaks at each stage, and the set of paths that are still open from here. The goal is simple: give you a clear, actionable map so you’re not guessing which regime you’re trading or investing into.

Below the video you’ll find the slide deck and the Credit Cycle PDF so you can work through the framework at your own pace or revisit specific sections.

For paid subscribers, I’ve added a full written report below the paywall that applies this framework to today’s data and lays out the key scenarios, positioning implications, and risks I’m focused on now.

The Macroeconomic Framework Of Capital Flows A Comprehensive Playbook (2) (5) (9)
633KB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download

The Credit Cycle And Macro Endgame
4.58MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download

Positioning Risk and Macro Flows:

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