Capital Flows

Capital Flows

Macro Reports

I Went Through Every Chart On The Credit Cycle – This Won’t End Well

Every single chart for WHERE we are and the risks that are building

Capital Flows's avatar
Capital Flows
Jan 26, 2026
∙ Paid

I Went Through Every Chart On The Credit Cycle – This Won’t End Well

The credit cycle is doing exactly what it always does at this stage: compressing a lot of future pain into a narrow window. In this video, I walk through every key chart so you can see why I don’t think this ends well, and what that means for anyone running real risk.

If you want to study the charts at your own pace, here’s the full slide deck from the video. This is the same framework I use to map where we are in the credit cycle and how it bleeds into rates, spreads, and equities.

I Went Through Every Chart On The Credit Cycle And This Wont End Well
8.33MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download

On Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. ET, I’m doing a closed‑door livestream for paid Capital Flows Research subscribers, where I’ll update these charts with the latest data and walk through how I’m actually positioning into this part of the credit cycle.

If you want to see how I’m turning this into concrete rate, credit, and equity decisions in real time, that session is where I’ll lay it out.

CREDIT CYCLE LIVESTREAM DETAILS:

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Capital Flows to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Capital Flows · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture