Friday’s livestream laid out the full inflation cycle playbook: why headline and core are rising together, why nominal demand running near 6% against a 4% policy rate is an amplifier rather than a brake, and why the inflation swap market is still pricing a deceleration the data does not support. We walked through where each economy sits on the cycle clock, what term premium and the short end are telling us about the next leg in rates, how factor flows show equities positioned for AI momentum rather than macro risk, and the redundancy plan for headline and core moving in any combination. The 60/40 study closes the loop: more than half of this year’s nominal return has been eaten by inflation, which is exactly the setup that preceded 2022. Below is the recording, the slide deck, the 60/40 purchasing power study, and the full chaptered transcript, all as PDFs.
Inflation Cycle Playbook (Livestream Reply)
All of the materials, playbooks, and strategy from the livestream
