Inflation Risk In The Global Economy
LIVESTREAM/PROPIETARY REPORT
The livestream today broke down WHERE inflation risk is building in the global economy and HOW to model it against the growth impulse that keeps pushing interest rates higher.
Main takeaways from the macro playbook section:
Debt levels increasing is not bearish. A crisis only occurs when there is an asset-liability mismatch, which is WHY NVIDIA structuring its balance sheet with more debt against appreciating GPU collateral is the company betting on itself, not a warning sign.
Inflation is modeled by taking every source of nominal demand against every source of real output. The velocity of M2 is a worthless input, and anyone actually mapping inflation is using real time credit card data, savings balances, and pricing power across every major retailer.
Core CPI decelerated from 2.9 to 2.6 year over year, and at the current speed of deceleration the print lands near 2% by year end. Tomorrow’s CPI and the PPI print behind it are the events that set the macro regime from here.
Bonds will not bid until AI CapEx ends or the credit behind it collapses. The nowcast is running near 5.8% real GDP with fixed investment accelerating, and roughly 40% of S&P 500 returns over the last year are connected to AI.
Inflation sensitive equity factors are already moving, with steels and metals up 43% and ags up 16% year to date, while short end inflation swaps from Japan to the UK show WHERE the global pressure is building next.
The warning signs are stacking incrementally: inventory to sales ratios are falling while government spending rises, and real rates at new highs are still not restrictive enough to slow the US economy.
You can find the free recording on the Inflation Risk Playbook here in the YouTube video:
The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.
Tomorrow’s Livestream: The Hidden Mechanics Behind Interest Rates:
Interest rates sit at the center of every asset price in the global system, yet most investors never look at the machinery that actually sets them. Tomorrow’s stream will map HOW policy, collateral, and debt issuance interact to drive the rate structure and WHERE the next repricing is likely to come from.
Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):
Proprietary Report On Inflation Risk and The Bond Market Repricing
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