Capital Flows

Capital Flows

Interest Rate & FX Strategy

Interest Rate & FX Strategy: The Hidden Structure Behind Dollar Weakness

Monetary policy and geopolitical shifts in monetary debasement

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Capital Flows
Jan 02, 2026
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Interest Rate & FX Strategy: Dollar Devaluation Drivers

The dollar’s weakness has not been driven by headlines or sentiment, but by a clear set of macro forces operating beneath the surface. Compressed rate differentials, crowded carry trades, and falling FX volatility have shaped price action far more than narratives.

Understanding these drivers matters more than reacting to price. FX moves as capital responds to incentives and risk being repriced across time.

Below is a short video walking through the key charts that define the current dollar regime.

The tangible implementation of this video can be found in the report below for paid subscribers.

Macro Drivers and Directional Risk Reward: (For paid community members)

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