Interest Rate Volatility Is Compressing For The Next Move
LIVESTREAM/PROPIETARY REPORT
The first section of today’s live stream broke down interest rate volatility and why it is compressing right before the next move. The core idea is that bond vol, equity correlation, FX, and credit have collapsed into a single trade, so a small change in one now moves all of them. If you were trying to understand why interest rate volatility and equity implied correlation now move in lockstep and erased the diversification in a 60/40 portfolio, why rising real rates that fail to unwind equities signal more liquidity in the system rather than less, and how the carry trade wires FX and rates into one coin so that compressed volatility pays a trickle and then pays back in a flood, this video explains all of it.
You can find the free recording on the Interest Rate Volatility Playbook here in the YouTube video.
The free section is built to give you the full mechanics and the structural regime from first principles. The member section is where we take that foundation and connect it directly to the macro regime and positioning in real time. The recording of the live member section, where we take interest rate volatility into the live regime and connect it to real and nominal rates, the MOVE index, FX, and option flow heading into FOMC and the jobs data, is linked at the bottom of this report.
Macro Decks From today’s stream:
Tomorrow’s Livestream: Could China Crash The Entire AI Trade?
Tomorrow’s livestream will dig into a question that sits underneath the entire market: could China crash the AI trade and take the Mag7 down with it? We will build the framework around economic warfare and the AI arms race, tracing where the real choke points sit and how a single move in that conflict could ripple through the most crowded trade in the world. If you are trying to understand HOW this economic warfare actually works and WHY the AI arms race is the fault line that could reprice everything, tomorrow’s stream will lay out and explain all of these factors.
Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):
Proprietary Report On Interest Rate Volatility
Here is the proprietary report explaining HOW interest rate volatility connects to real rates, FX, and option flow heading into the FOMC setup:
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