Intraday Update: How Tariffs And A Fed Pause Connect To Price Action
Asymmetrical information edge
As we are moving into CPI this week, inflation swaps are rallying which is a problem for traders with long bonds exposure. 1 year inflation swaps just made a new high as crude is positive on the day.
Why does this matter? Because it is going to drag on the long end and cause the curve to steepen.
We are seeing bear steepening on the day with crude up on the day as well:
The context for this move was laid out in the macro report:
And the video breakdown:
We are now below the NFP level and likely to retrace marginally as we move into the CPI print. This is going to cause the curve to bear steepen as the Fed holds rates constant.
As I have stated in the macro report, the Fed pause is directly connected to the scenario analysis we have for the curve now:
The TYPE of curve regime and its connection to the macro regime contextualizes ALL moves in assets.
I will be publishing a video later today on how this framework specifically connects to the risk reward set up in Bitcoin. The Long MSTR trade still has a great risk reward.
Staying locked in
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