Is A Liquidity Event Looming On The Horizon?
LIVESTREAM/PROPIETARY REPORT
The macro playbook section of today’s livestream broke down WHY the current selling in the index are rotation instead of risk off, and HOW the credit cycle melt up sets the stage for the next liquidity event.
Main takeaways from the free section:
Single stock volatility is at record levels against the VIX while implied correlation collapses. The index is flat to marginally down while leadership rotates underneath, WHICH means the market is repositioning on excess liquidity, not contracting.
Corporate credit issuance hit 110 billion in June, the strongest month since March and nearly double last year, with year to date issuance at 685 billion. This is a credit cycle melt up, and financials printing all time highs confirms liquidity is not contracting.
Every major bubble follows the same playbook: capital floods a single asset class and the best traders get long the parabolic move. Internet stocks in the nineties, mortgages in the two thousands, crypto in 2021, and now AI compute is the next asset class absorbing the flows.
The Fed is holding real rates up as inflation swaps fall with crude, and the SOFR strip is pricing roughly 50 basis points of hikes through 2026. Downside in the whites and reds is limited from here, WHICH caps how bearish the setup can get for equities.
Fiscal stimulus baskets show Japan and Germany outperforming while the US basket lags, with the Nikkei up 33 percent year to date against 9 percent for the S&P. Government spending funded by short term issuance is the engine, and it is cooking the yen.
Oracle remains one of the most asymmetric setups in the market: a 44 percent reversion from the highs, sitting on the 200 week moving average, directly leveraged to the next stage of the AI cycle WHERE data, memory, and infrastructure converge.
You can find the free recording on the Liquidity Event Playbook here in the YouTube video:
The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.
Macro Decks From today’s stream:
All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK
Tomorrow’s Livestream: My Update On PURR and The Future Of Hyperliquid
Tomorrow’s stream covers my update on PURR and WHERE Hyperliquid goes from here. We will map the onchain flows, the positioning setup, and HOW the next stage of the Hyperliquid ecosystem connects to the broader liquidity regime.
Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):
Proprietary Report On The Next Liquidity Event
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