Capital Flows

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Is Bitcoin Signaling The End Of The Credit Cycle?

An analysis of Bitcoin From A Macro Liquidity Perspective

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Capital Flows
Nov 04, 2025
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Is Bitcoin Signaling The End Of The Credit Cycle?

Is Bitcoin Signaling The End Of The Credit Cycle
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Macro Liquidity Breakdown:

Main Ideas:

  • The short-end plumbing is NOT impacting broad beta flows

  • We are seeing dispersion and rotation as opposed to a macro inflection point

  • The unrealistic expectations of Bitcoin’s returns stem from narratives as opposed to a rigorous analysis of the price action and macro flows

  • The signals for WHEN Bitcoin will rally and outperform can only be derived when viewing it in its place on the risk curve relative to equity beta.


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