Macro Positioning Report: Equities, Gold, Crude, and Bonds
One of the core theses I have been laying out over the last 6 months is that inflation risk is higher than recession risk. This still remains true on a structural basis, where we have a higher level of nominal GDP compared to the 2010s. However, we are seeing an incremental shift in the probabilities of the market I want to cover. Probabilities ALWAYS shift incrementally, so understanding and mapping them in real time is the key.
What I want to do in this report is explain HOW these probabilities are shifting and WHY it matters for positioning across equities, gold, crude, and bonds.