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Macro Regime Tracker: 2-25-2025
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Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

Macro Regime Tracker: 2-25-2025

Daily Systematic Strategies & Models

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Capital Flows
Feb 26, 2025
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Macro Regime Tracker: 2-25-2025
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Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.

Launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link


Macro Regime Tracker Index:

  • Macro Regime Context

  • Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

  • Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

  • Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker

  • Fixed Income and Credit Model

  • Equity Sector Model

  • Machine Learning Strategies and Models


Macro Regime Context:

Since Trump’s victory in November 2024, equity markets have been range-bound as the Fed maintains its pause. Beneath this sideways grind, significant sector rotations continue—underscoring the importance of closely monitoring positioning shocks in key industries.

  • US Equities finished lower, with technology posting the steepest losses.

  • Growth-Scare Narrative Intensifies: equities extended losses while Treasuries rallied, and February’s weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading added another data point suggesting policy uncertainty is dragging on economic sentiment.

  • Treasury Rally: A strong five-year auction provided additional support for bonds, bolstered by comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent indicating the administration’s desire to drive yields and the dollar lower.

  • Rising Rate-Cut Expectations: Mounting nervousness around the health of the U.S. economy continues to fuel Fed rate-cut bets.

  • Fed Policy Outlook:

    • BARKIN: FED POLICY MAY NEED TO 'LEAN AGAINST' HEADWINDS

  • New Trump Headlines:

    • TRUMP LAUNCHES COMMERCE PROBE THAT COULD LEAD TO COPPER TARIFFS

    • TRUMP: US COMPANY INVESTMENTS TO ONLY GO WHERE US TREATED WELL

Against this backdrop, cautious trading is likely to persist as markets grapple with policy uncertainty, mixed corporate earnings (NVIDIA tomorrow), and ongoing trade tensions.


Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

Tearsheet Crypto 20250226
4.81MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fi 20250226
15.9MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fx 20250226
17.7MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Eq 20250226
19MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Comd 20250226
36MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download

Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

Fred Analysis Dashboard V2025d
8.32MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download


Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:

The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.

(7-day free trials are available so you can review everything with zero downside: LINK)

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