Macro Regime Tracker: 2-26-2025
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
While Trump’s victory in November 2024 seems like forever ago, equity markets have been range-bound as the Fed maintains pauses. Beneath this sideways grind, sector rotations continue underscoring the importance of closely monitoring positioning shocks in industries.
Equities: Markets remain range-bound, though defensive sectors (health care, staples, energy) led the latest decline. Tech names, by contrast, eked out gains.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s threat of tariffs on Mexico and Canada had a muted impact on the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, suggesting skepticism they’ll be imposed. However, if enacted, both currencies could drop further.
*TRUMP: EU TARIFFS TO BE 25% ON AUTOS, OTHER THINGS
*TRUMP SAYS CANADA, MEXICO TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT APRIL 2
Copper Probe: The Commerce Department investigation could lead to copper tariffs; prices rallied on the announcement and ongoing supply disruptions in Chile.
Nvidia: Data-center revenue surged 93% from a year earlier, though EPS growth slowed. Shares moved higher in after-hours trading at about 30x forward earnings, in line with other tech giants.
Fed & Rates: A strong Treasury auction and mounting economic worries are fueling bets on potential rate cuts. Fed officials remain wary of disentangling policy-driven inflation from broader supply factors.
US Fed will 'adapt' to any policy changes, Chicago's Goolsbee says.
Outlook: Lingering policy uncertainty and uneven corporate results keep markets on edge. The defensive tilt may persist until there’s greater clarity on tariffs, trade, and the Fed’s path forward.
*TRUMP CONFIRMS ZELENSKIY TO VISIT THE US ON FRIDAY
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
(7-day free trials are available so you can review everything with zero downside: LINK)
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