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Macro Regime Tracker: 2-26-2025
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

Macro Regime Tracker: 2-26-2025

Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly

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Capital Flows
Feb 27, 2025
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Macro Regime Tracker: 2-26-2025
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Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.

Launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link


Macro Regime Tracker Index:

  • Macro Regime Context

  • Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

  • Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

  • Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker

  • Fixed Income and Credit Model

  • Equity Sector Model

  • Machine Learning Strategies and Models


Macro Regime Context:

While Trump’s victory in November 2024 seems like forever ago, equity markets have been range-bound as the Fed maintains pauses. Beneath this sideways grind, sector rotations continue underscoring the importance of closely monitoring positioning shocks in industries.

  • Equities: Markets remain range-bound, though defensive sectors (health care, staples, energy) led the latest decline. Tech names, by contrast, eked out gains.

  • Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s threat of tariffs on Mexico and Canada had a muted impact on the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, suggesting skepticism they’ll be imposed. However, if enacted, both currencies could drop further.

    • *TRUMP: EU TARIFFS TO BE 25% ON AUTOS, OTHER THINGS

    • *TRUMP SAYS CANADA, MEXICO TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT APRIL 2

  • Copper Probe: The Commerce Department investigation could lead to copper tariffs; prices rallied on the announcement and ongoing supply disruptions in Chile.

  • Nvidia: Data-center revenue surged 93% from a year earlier, though EPS growth slowed. Shares moved higher in after-hours trading at about 30x forward earnings, in line with other tech giants.

  • Fed & Rates: A strong Treasury auction and mounting economic worries are fueling bets on potential rate cuts. Fed officials remain wary of disentangling policy-driven inflation from broader supply factors.

    • US Fed will 'adapt' to any policy changes, Chicago's Goolsbee says.

  • Outlook: Lingering policy uncertainty and uneven corporate results keep markets on edge. The defensive tilt may persist until there’s greater clarity on tariffs, trade, and the Fed’s path forward.

    • *TRUMP CONFIRMS ZELENSKIY TO VISIT THE US ON FRIDAY


Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

Tearsheet Crypto 20250227
4.78MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fi 20250227
15.8MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Eq 20250227
19MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fx 20250227
17.6MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Comd 20250227
34.5MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download

Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

Fred Analysis Dashboard V2025d
8.32MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download

Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:

The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.

(7-day free trials are available so you can review everything with zero downside: LINK)

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