Macro Regime Tracker: 2-27-2025
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
While Trump’s victory in November 2024 seems like forever ago, equity markets are starting to bleed, now at 6 consecutive down days (ES futures). Sector rotations continue underscoring the importance of closely monitoring positioning shocks in industries and in related derivatives (options, fx forwards etc..)
Equities
Range-Bound but Volatile: The S&P 500 erased YTD gains and the Nasdaq 100 hit November lows. Defensive sectors led declines; tech fared better early on, but Nvidia plunged over 8% post-earnings.
CTA Flows: Rapid selling into the close suggests commodity trading advisors drove the final leg down, with megacaps leading losses.
Tariff Uncertainty
Canada & Mexico: Tariffs will proceed on March 4, threatening downside for the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso if fully enacted.
EU Autos: Trump maintained a possible 25% tariff, keeping trade tensions high.
Copper Probe
The Commerce Department’s copper investigation could lead to new tariffs. Existing supply disruptions in Chile are already boosting prices.
Fed & Rates
Mixed Signals: Economic worries and a strong Treasury auction fuel rate-cut bets, but Fed officials (Barkin, Schmid, Hammack, Harker) remain cautious. Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee says the Fed can “adapt” if conditions change.
Sticky Inflation: Policymakers warn supply-driven price pressures aren’t fully resolved.
Tomorrow
Consumer Data & PCE Inflation on Friday will be crucial. Any sign of weakening consumer activity could compound existing market jitters.
Additionally we have the month end option expires to navigate.
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
(7-day free trials are available so you can review everything with zero downside: LINK)
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