Macro Regime Tracker: 3-3-2025
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
We are likely approaching a cyclical inflection point in the macro regime. The new political administration is well on its way to implementing tariffs, which is being reflected in inflation and the decisions of corporations. Within this period of time, we are likely to see overextrapolations of inflation risk and recession risk. The market is currently overextrapolating the recession risk as reflected in positioning in both stocks and bonds. The main developments in this regime are as follows:
President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective Tuesday, and doubled a tariff on China to 20%
He signaled tariffs on “external” agricultural products starting April 2, sparking fears of a broader trade war
Canada and Mexico prepared retaliatory measures while US markets slumped and inflation concerns grew
The administration’s moves could disrupt supply chains, particularly in the auto and agriculture sectors
Economists warned that escalating tariffs may further weaken US economic growth and raise consumer prices
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
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