Macro Regime Tracker: 3-4-2025 - Equity Strategy Update
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
We are in a macro regime where short-term data releases and news headlines are shocking positioning within the broader constraints of the macro regime. Significant focus has been on Trump’s tweets and Scott Bessents’ recent comments about the market. While these short-term news releases might shock the market intraday, the macro constraints in the system will continue to exert themselves as the timeframe moves to multi-day and weekly returns.
Equtiy internals (breadth) and vol measures continue to move to extremes. These are directly connected to the dynamics we are seeing in the SOFR pricing for 2025 and yield curve regimes.
FOMC (NY) President John Williams noted they are watching the increase in long term inflation expectations but highlighted that survey data still points to short-term price concerns as the primary area. Williams acknowledged that tariffs might contribute to higher consumer costs. He said the central bank will stay attentive to economic data and business sentiment, adding that the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate.
President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective Tuesday, and doubled a tariff on China to 20%
*WILLIAMS: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY
*WILLIAMS: SEE A VERY HIGH PASS-THROUGH OF TARIFFS TO CONSUMERS
*BESSENT: WE HAVE FOCUS ON SMALL BUSINESS, CONSUMERS
*BESSENT ON CHINA TARIFFS: CHINA EXPORT MODEL NOT ACCEPTABLE
Must watch video: Soros CIO - Dawn Fitzpatrick (Video Link) (Key Section: 1:50min)
Interest Rate Strategy Report: Link
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
(7-day free trials are available so you can review everything with zero downside: LINK)
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