Macro Regime Tracker: Bitcoin and Equities
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
One of the major themes I have laid out for paid subscribers is that macro volatility is NOT over. Notice that 30D volatility remains elevated as 10D volatility is falling marginally. This means on a 30D basis, the drivers in equities to the downside have been significant enough to push equities outside of their historical range. The short-term capitulation has subsided as equities bounced but the bounce has been incredibly weak and macro factors arent shifting enough to justify a shift back to all time highs and low volatility.
As a result, ALL risk assets, including Bitcoin, have wider ranges. As I laid out in the Twitter thread today (link), implied volatility for the major BTC proxies (MSTR and COIN) has moved to an implied volatility discount. We don’t know when things are going to begin to shift back to the upside on a macro and positioning basis but for now, there remains reasonable risks to the downside in Bitcoin and equities.
More on this at the end of the report.
Main Developments In Macro Today:
*US HAS PAUSED CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE WTO: REUTERS
*NORGES BANK SEES 2025 CPI-ATE OF 3.4%; SAW 2.7% IN DECEMBER
*REEVES: TRADE FRICTIONS WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO GROW ECONOMY
*TRUMP FLOATS MORE TARIFFS ON EU, CANADA IF THEY WORK AGAINST US
*TRUMP: HIGHER TARIFFS ON EU, CANADA IF THEY WORK AGAINST US
*TRUMP: IF EU WORKS WITH CANADA TO DO HARM, MORE TARIFFS COMING
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
(If you are new and would like to do a free trial to review the full macro regime tracker with the connected ES strategy, a link to a free trial is available here: Link).
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