Macro Regime Tracker: Crude is ripping
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
We are seeing crude move in lockstep with the view laid out on as positioning unwinds and the absence of a recession is confirmed:
This rally in crude is taking place at the same time we are operating in this tension with bonds which I laid out in this video:
I also made a video covering some basic principles for how to think about macro catalysts here:
I also wrote a twitter thread today that can be found here: LINK
Main Developments In Macro
*TRUMP ARRIVES AT THE CAPITOL FOR TAX BILL TALKS
*TRUMP: WE HAVE AN UNIFIED PARTY
*TRUMP: IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF HOLDOUTS
*TRUMP: ECONOMY IS ROARING
*ECB'S WUNSCH: MARKET'S INTEREST-RATE BETS ARE `REASONABLE'
*ECB'S WUNSCH: RATES MAY NEED TO BE `MILDLY SUPPORTIVE'
*FED'S HAMMACK: WHITE HOUSE TAX BILL COMPLICATES FORECAST: AXIOS
*CLEVELAND FED PRESIDENT BETH HAMMACK SPEAKS WITH AXIOS
*FED'S HAMMACK SAYS DON'T WANT TO OVERREACT TO TRADE: AXIOS
*HAMMACK:POLICIES TO COME COULD OFFSET TRADE POLICY EFFECT:AXIOS
*ST. LOUIS FED PRESIDENT ALBERTO MUSALEM COMMENTS IN SPEECH TEXT
*MUSALEM: MUST FOCUS ON INFLATION IF EXPECTATIONS NOT ANCHORED
*MUSALEM: RANGE OF ECO POLICY OUTCOMES WIDE, UNCERTAINTY HIGH
*MUSALEM: US ECONOMY SHOWING STRENGTH, LABOR MARKET RESILIENT
*MUSALEM: IF INFLATION HIT PERSISTS CAN FOLLOW BALANCED APPROACH
*MUSK IS FULLY COMMITTED TO TRUMP, WILL STAY ADVISER: REUTERS
*BOSTIC: ADDED UNCERTAINTY COULD EXTEND TIMELINE FOR POLICY MOVE
*FED'S BOSTIC: UNCLEAR HOW CONSUMERS WILL RESPOND TO TARIFFS
*BOSTIC: NEED TO WAIT TO SEE WHERE ECONOMY HEADED BEFORE ACTING
*BOSTIC: US DOWNGRADE, TAX BILL COULD ADD TO OVERALL UNCERTAINTY
*ARGENTINA TO CUT TARIFFS ON INDUSTRIAL GOODS TO 12.6%: CAPUTO
*TRUMP: WE MUST MAINTAIN OUR STATUS AS WIFI, 5G, 6G
*TRUMP: WILL FREE UP PLENTY OF SPECTRUM FOR AUCTION
*TRUMP: OFFICIALLY SELECTED AN ARCHITECTURE FOR DOME PROJECT
*TRUMP SAYS DOME WILL BE DONE IN ABOUT 3 YEARS
*TRUMP: TAX BILL WILL HAVE $25B FOR GOLDEN DOME CONSTRUCTION
*TRUMP REITERATES HE WANTS NO CUTS TO MEDICAID
*SPEAKER JOHNSON, ON SALT TALKS TONIGHT: WE'LL GET IT WRAPPED UP
*SPEAKER JOHNSON: THURS. TAX BILL FLOOR VOTE STILL REALISTIC
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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