Macro Regime Tracker: Equity view coming together
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
The ES view that I laid out yesterday has been confirmed in the rally today, and gap up after futures open. Part of this dynamic is that on a short-term time horizon, ES was positioned so bearish due to the tariff risk that a marginal change in the news would cause a rally. Positioning is always oscillating between the constraints of the macro regime, so I am going to be breaking these dynamics down extensively in today’s report.
When you have a headline like this during the hour that futures are closed, it isn’t surprising to see a gap, but we need to properly connect this to macro flows:
*TRUMP: IT'S AT 145% THEY WON'T BE NEAR THAT NUMBER
Main Developments In Macro
*TRUMP ADMIN MULLS CUTTING US DRUG PRICES TO INTL LEVELS: RTRS
*ECB'S KAZIMIR: INTEREST RATES ARE NOW WITHIN NEUTRAL RANGE
*LAGARDE: INFLATION IS HEADING TO ECB'S 2% TARGET IN 2025
*BESSENT SEES DE-ESCALATION WITH CHINA, SITUATION UNSUSTAINABLE
*BESSENT TO SPEAK TOMORROW AT 10AM ON STATE OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM
*TRUMP: DOING FINE WITH CHINA, ALMOST EVERY COUNTRY
*TRUMP, ASKED IF HE'LL PLAY HARDBALL WITH CHINA: NO
*TRUMP: IT'S AT 145% THEY WON'T BE NEAR THAT NUMBER
*TRUMP: IT'LL COME DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BUT WON'T BE ZERO
*TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO BE VERY GOOD TO CHINA
*TRUMP SAYS HE HAS NO INTENTION OF FIRING FED CHAIR POWELL
*KUGLER: CURRENT POLICY WELL POSITIONED FOR CHANGES IN ECONOMY
*KUGLER: HOLD RATES IF INF. RISKS REMAIN AND EMPLOYMENT STABLE
*KUGLER: TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS COULD WEIGH ON GROWTH
*FED’S KUGLER SEES UPSIDE RISKS TO INF., DOWNSIDE RISKS TO JOBS
*MUSK SAYS NOT STEPPING DOWN FROM DOGE
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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