Macro Regime Tracker: Flows
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
The equity and bond views have been laid out here:
Alpha Report: Post-FOMC and Impact On Equities/Rates
I want to cover the FOMC statement and Powell’s comments, and then connect to the macro views I have been laying out.
Main Developments In Macro
U.S. Monetary Policy & Fed Commentary
Fed: Policy well positioned to wait for more clarity on outlook
Fed: Labor market in solid shape; supply and demand in balance
Fed: Nominal wage gains close to consistent with 2% inflation
Fed: Layoff activity remains subdued; immigration has slowed
Fed to release Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report Friday
Waller Comments (Key for Near-Term Fed Outlook):
Waller: Could cut rates as early as July meeting
Waller: Don’t think we need to wait much longer to cut rates
Waller: Don’t want to wait until job market tanks
Waller: Fed could pause cuts if there's a major shock
Waller: Second-round tariff effects not yet visible
Waller: Important to look through tariff inflation
Geopolitics – Iran/Israel Conflict
IDF: Iran launches ballistic missiles toward Israel
Missiles land in Tel Aviv and southern Israel
IDF: Sirens sounding across Israel
IDF: Identified missiles launched from Iran
Switzerland to temporarily close embassy in Iran
Iran FM Aragchi: World must act now to stop Israel
Iran: Determined to defend itself with full force
Trump: 'Maybe it won't be necessary' for US to strike Iran
Trump: Israel has limited capacity to strike Iran sites
Trump: Giving Iran a limited window of time
Trump: Might support ceasefire between Iran-Israel
Trump wariness on bombing Iran partly tied to Libya precedent (NYP)
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.
Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income and Currencies
You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK
Here is a summary of all models and their directional strengths:
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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