Capital Flows

Capital Flows

Share this post

Capital Flows
Capital Flows
Macro Regime Tracker: Flows
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

Macro Regime Tracker: Flows

Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly

Capital Flows's avatar
Capital Flows
Jun 21, 2025
∙ Paid
14

Share this post

Capital Flows
Capital Flows
Macro Regime Tracker: Flows
3
Share

The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.


Macro Regime Tracker Index:

  • Macro Regime Context

  • Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

  • Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

  • Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

  • AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin


Macro Regime Context:

The equity and bond views have been laid out here:

Alpha Reports

Alpha Report: Post-FOMC and Impact On Equities/Rates

Capital Flows
·
Jun 19
Alpha Report: Post-FOMC and Impact On Equities/Rates

I want to cover the FOMC statement and Powell’s comments, and then connect to the macro views I have been laying out.

Read full story

Main Developments In Macro

U.S. Monetary Policy & Fed Commentary

  • Fed: Policy well positioned to wait for more clarity on outlook

  • Fed: Labor market in solid shape; supply and demand in balance

  • Fed: Nominal wage gains close to consistent with 2% inflation

  • Fed: Layoff activity remains subdued; immigration has slowed

  • Fed to release Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report Friday

Waller Comments (Key for Near-Term Fed Outlook):

  • Waller: Could cut rates as early as July meeting

  • Waller: Don’t think we need to wait much longer to cut rates

  • Waller: Don’t want to wait until job market tanks

  • Waller: Fed could pause cuts if there's a major shock

  • Waller: Second-round tariff effects not yet visible

  • Waller: Important to look through tariff inflation


Geopolitics – Iran/Israel Conflict

  • IDF: Iran launches ballistic missiles toward Israel

  • Missiles land in Tel Aviv and southern Israel

  • IDF: Sirens sounding across Israel

  • IDF: Identified missiles launched from Iran

  • Switzerland to temporarily close embassy in Iran

  • Iran FM Aragchi: World must act now to stop Israel

  • Iran: Determined to defend itself with full force

  • Trump: 'Maybe it won't be necessary' for US to strike Iran

  • Trump: Israel has limited capacity to strike Iran sites

  • Trump: Giving Iran a limited window of time

  • Trump: Might support ceasefire between Iran-Israel

  • Trump wariness on bombing Iran partly tied to Libya precedent (NYP)


Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

Tearsheet Stockbond 20250620
563KB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Crypto 20250620
4.84MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fi 20250620
14.9MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fx 20250620
17.6MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Eq 20250620
18.9MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Comd 20250620
37.3MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download


Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.

Real Estate Spreadsheet V1
4.22MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download
Fred Analysis Dashboard V2025d
8.34MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download


Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income and Currencies

You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK

Here is a summary of all models and their directional strengths:

Cfr Model Output Fixed Income
3.07MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Cfr Model Output Currency
4.51MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Cfr Model Output Commodities
6.05MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Cfr Model Output Equities
5.36MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download


Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Capital Flows to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Capital Flows
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share