Macro Regime Tracker: FOMC Flows
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
See the breakdown of FOMC and how it connects to rates/equities here:
Alpha Report: Post-FOMC and Impact On Equities/Rates
I want to cover the FOMC statement and Powell’s comments, and then connect to the macro views I have been laying out.
Main Developments In Macro
U.S. MACRO & MONETARY POLICY
FOMC holds rates at 4.25%–4.50%; vote unanimous
FOMC median still shows 50 bp of cuts in 2025, but 7 officials now see no cuts
2025 GDP downgraded to 1.4%; PCE inflation revised up to 3.0%
Powell: “Well positioned to wait”; expects more clarity on tariffs over summer
Powell: Tariff effects may be persistent; many firms expect to pass costs on
Powell: Policy is modestly restrictive; economy growing at 1.5–2% pace
Powell: Differences in dot plot projections should diminish with incoming data
Powell: Tame inflation partly due to housing; labor market remains solid
Powell: Dual mandate goals may come into tension
Traders still price in ~2 cuts for 2025
IOR held at 4.4%, balance sheet runoff unchanged ($5B Treasuries / $35B MBS)
GEOPOLITICS & ENERGY
Trump reportedly approved Iran strike plan, withheld final order (WSJ)
IDF confirms missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure in Tehran
Iran: “Will make aggressor regret... but remain committed to diplomacy”
Qatar: Emir and UK PM discuss Israel-Iran conflict by phone
WTI crude spiked 4.4% to $74.92; volatility highest in 3 years
US Embassy begins partial evacuation of personnel from Israel
MARKET COMMENTARY
Gundlach: Fed biased to cut; sees yield curve steepening trend persisting
Gundlach: Gold still heading to $4,000; bond market flashing ‘wait and see’
Clarida: Decision reflects a dovish lean by the FOMC
Bob Michele (JPM): Fed in a good spot; businesses are “frozen” on hiring
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.
Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income and Currencies
You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK
Here is a summary of all models and their directional strengths:
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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