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Macro Regime Tracker: FOMC Flows
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

Macro Regime Tracker: FOMC Flows

Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly

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Capital Flows
Jun 19, 2025
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Macro Regime Tracker: FOMC Flows
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The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.


Macro Regime Tracker Index:

  • Macro Regime Context

  • Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

  • Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

  • Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

  • AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin


Macro Regime Context:

See the breakdown of FOMC and how it connects to rates/equities here:

Alpha Reports

Alpha Report: Post-FOMC and Impact On Equities/Rates

Capital Flows
·
Jun 19
Alpha Report: Post-FOMC and Impact On Equities/Rates

I want to cover the FOMC statement and Powell’s comments, and then connect to the macro views I have been laying out.

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Main Developments In Macro

U.S. MACRO & MONETARY POLICY

  • FOMC holds rates at 4.25%–4.50%; vote unanimous

  • FOMC median still shows 50 bp of cuts in 2025, but 7 officials now see no cuts

  • 2025 GDP downgraded to 1.4%; PCE inflation revised up to 3.0%

  • Powell: “Well positioned to wait”; expects more clarity on tariffs over summer

  • Powell: Tariff effects may be persistent; many firms expect to pass costs on

  • Powell: Policy is modestly restrictive; economy growing at 1.5–2% pace

  • Powell: Differences in dot plot projections should diminish with incoming data

  • Powell: Tame inflation partly due to housing; labor market remains solid

  • Powell: Dual mandate goals may come into tension

  • Traders still price in ~2 cuts for 2025

  • IOR held at 4.4%, balance sheet runoff unchanged ($5B Treasuries / $35B MBS)


GEOPOLITICS & ENERGY

  • Trump reportedly approved Iran strike plan, withheld final order (WSJ)

  • IDF confirms missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure in Tehran

  • Iran: “Will make aggressor regret... but remain committed to diplomacy”

  • Qatar: Emir and UK PM discuss Israel-Iran conflict by phone

  • WTI crude spiked 4.4% to $74.92; volatility highest in 3 years

  • US Embassy begins partial evacuation of personnel from Israel


MARKET COMMENTARY

  • Gundlach: Fed biased to cut; sees yield curve steepening trend persisting

  • Gundlach: Gold still heading to $4,000; bond market flashing ‘wait and see’

  • Clarida: Decision reflects a dovish lean by the FOMC

  • Bob Michele (JPM): Fed in a good spot; businesses are “frozen” on hiring


Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

Tearsheet Stockbond 20250618
564KB ∙ PDF file
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Download
Tearsheet Crypto 20250618
4.84MB ∙ PDF file
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Download
Tearsheet Fi 20250618
14.9MB ∙ PDF file
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Download
Tearsheet Eq 20250618
19.1MB ∙ PDF file
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Download
Tearsheet Fx 20250618
17.6MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Comd 20250618
33.9MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download


Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.

Real Estate Spreadsheet V1
4.22MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download
Fred Analysis Dashboard V2025d
8.34MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download


Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income and Currencies

You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK

Here is a summary of all models and their directional strengths:

Cfr Model Output Fixed Income
3.07MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Cfr Model Output Currency
4.5MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Cfr Model Output Equities
5.36MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Cfr Model Output Commodities
6.05MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download


Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.

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