Macro Regime Tracker: How Is Powell Shifting?
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
I systematically laid out the views for equities, credit, and bonds here:
Trade Write-Ups: Bonds and Credit Trades
This trade write-up will break down the updates that took place during FOMC today and explain the risk-reward for running trades in equities, bonds, and credit.
The main thing to keep in mind is that on a cyclical basis, the remarks of Powell are continually skewing interest rates to the downside. There might be counter-trend moves and some bear steepening here and there but the cyclical trend is to the downside.
Main Developments In Macro Today:
*EURO AREA FINAL FEB. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.3% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
*FED'S POWELL: ECONOMY IS STRONG OVERALL
*POWELL: INDICATORS SUGGEST LABOR MARKET BROADLY IN BALANCE
*POWELL: INFLATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED VERSUS 2% GOAL
*POWELL: FED WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR GREATER CLARITY
*POWELL: WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS INFLATION IMPACT OF TARIFFS
*POWELL: DON'T SEE MUCH INCREASE IN LONG-TERM EXPECTED INFLATION
*POWELL: LONG-TERM BREAKEVENS ARE FLAT OR SLIGHTLY DOWN
*POWELL: RECESSION ODDS HAVE MOVED UP BUT ARE NOT HIGH
*POWELL: SENTIMENT HAS FALLEN SHARPLY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HAS NOT
*POWELL: THERE'S NO PLAN TO TAPER MBS RUNOFF
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Capital Flows to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.