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Macro Regime Tracker: Inflation risk
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

Macro Regime Tracker: Inflation risk

Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly

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Capital Flows
May 12, 2025
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Macro Regime Tracker: Inflation risk
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The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.


Macro Regime Tracker Index:

  • Macro Regime Context

  • Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

  • Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

  • Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

  • AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin


Macro Regime Context:

Recession isn’t the risk here, it’s inflation. See the video I recorded here on it:

I also recorded a twitter spaces today, breaking down the macro context for WHERE we are and WHY central banks have made a massive mistake with inaction: Link

Finally, you can review the recent correlations and volatility primer I wrote here. There is a full list of papers on intraday trading:

Intraday Correlations and Volatility: A Primer

Capital Flows
·
May 12
Intraday Correlations and Volatility: A Primer

Always Learning:

Read full story

Main Developments In Macro

  • BESSENT: TO BRIEF ON CHINA TALKS AT 9 A.M. GENEVA TIME, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS

  • CHINA: TO LOWER TARIFFS ON U.S. GOODS TO 10% FROM 125% FOR 90 DAYS

  • U.S.: TO CUT TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 30% FROM 145% FOR 90 DAYS

  • BESSENT: NEITHER U.S. NOR CHINA WANT TO DECOUPLE

  • BESSENT: BOTH SIDES SHOWED ‘GREAT RESPECT’

  • BESSENT: MECHANISM IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED TALKS WITH CHINA

  • BESSENT: WOULD LIKE CHINA TO OPEN TO MORE U.S. GOODS

  • BESSENT: POSSIBILITY OF PURCHASING AGREEMENTS EXISTS

  • BESSENT: REDUCTIONS DO NOT INCLUDE SECTOR-SPECIFIC TARIFFS

  • BESSENT: NO DISCUSSION ON CURRENCY IN CHINA TALKS

  • BESSENT: U.K., SWITZERLAND MOVED TO FRONT OF QUEUE FOR TRADE DEALS

  • CHINA: HOPES TO MAINTAIN STABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH U.S.

  • CHINA MOFCOM: U.S. AND CHINA RECOGNIZE IMPORTANCE OF BILATERAL TRADE

  • TRUMP: SEEKING $1 TRILLION IN DEALS DURING GULF TRIP — AXIOS

  • BOE’S GREENE: DISINFLATION PROCESS IS UNDER WAY

  • BOE’S GREENE: INFLATION PERSISTENCE INDICATORS STILL TOO HIGH

  • BOE’S GREENE: WORRIED ABOUT SUPPLY SIDE OF THE ECONOMY

  • BOE’S GREENE: TRADE POLICY LIKELY DISINFLATIONARY FOR U.K.

  • BESSENT: CHINA TALKS IN GENEVA WERE RESPECTFUL

  • BESSENT: U.S. WAS FIRM WITH CHINA IN TALKS

  • BESSENT: IMAGINE WE WILL MEET WITH CHINA AGAIN IN NEXT FEW WEEKS

  • BESSENT: ‘UNFORTUNATE ESCALATION’ HAPPENED WITH CHINA

  • BESSENT: U.S. NOW SEEKING STRATEGIC DECOUPLING WITH CHINA

  • BESSENT: BOTH SIDES AGREE WE DO NOT WANT GENERALIZED DECOUPLING

  • BESSENT: CURRENT TARIFF LEVEL FOR CHINA IS A ‘FLOOR’

  • BESSENT: IT IS ‘IMPLAUSIBLE’ CHINA TARIFFS GO BELOW 10%

  • BESSENT: SEE PHONE CALL BEFORE MEETING BETWEEN TRUMP AND XI

  • BESSENT: TRUMP VIEWED 80% AS NOT AN EMBARGO FOR CHINA

  • BESSENT: IF CHINA ACTS, FENTANYL TARIFF COULD COME DOWN

  • TRUMP: APPLE BUILDING MANY PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES

  • TRUMP: CHINA DEAL DOES NOT INCLUDE CARS, STEEL, ALUMINUM

  • TRUMP: WILL SPEAK TO XI MAYBE AT END OF WEEK

  • TRUMP: CHINA DEAL DOES NOT INCLUDE TARIFFS ALREADY IN PLACE

  • TRUMP: HE WILL SPEAK TO XI MAYBE AT THE END OF THE WEEK

  • TRUMP: BEST PART OF DEAL IS CHINA AGREEING TO OPEN UP

  • TRUMP: CHINA WILL SUSPEND OR REMOVE ALL NON-MONETARY BARRIERS

  • TRUMP: CHINA AGREED TO END FENTANYL FLOW

  • TRUMP: CHINA WILL BE REWARDED ON TARIFFS FOR FENTANYL ACTION

  • TRUMP: EU IS ‘IN MANY WAYS, NASTIER THAN CHINA’

  • TRUMP: IF NECESSARY, WE WILL INVESTIGATE THE DRUG COMPANIES

  • TRUMP: MANY OTHER DEALS COMING


Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

Tearsheet Crypto 20250512
4.8MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fx 202505012
17.3MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fi 202505012
15MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Eq 20250512
18.6MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Comd 20250512
34.7MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download


Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

Fred Analysis Dashboard V2025 V4
9.05MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download


Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.

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