Macro Regime Tracker: Inflation risk
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
Recession isn’t the risk here, it’s inflation. See the video I recorded here on it:
I also recorded a twitter spaces today, breaking down the macro context for WHERE we are and WHY central banks have made a massive mistake with inaction: Link
Finally, you can review the recent correlations and volatility primer I wrote here. There is a full list of papers on intraday trading:
Main Developments In Macro
BESSENT: TO BRIEF ON CHINA TALKS AT 9 A.M. GENEVA TIME, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
CHINA: TO LOWER TARIFFS ON U.S. GOODS TO 10% FROM 125% FOR 90 DAYS
U.S.: TO CUT TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 30% FROM 145% FOR 90 DAYS
BESSENT: NEITHER U.S. NOR CHINA WANT TO DECOUPLE
BESSENT: BOTH SIDES SHOWED ‘GREAT RESPECT’
BESSENT: MECHANISM IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED TALKS WITH CHINA
BESSENT: WOULD LIKE CHINA TO OPEN TO MORE U.S. GOODS
BESSENT: POSSIBILITY OF PURCHASING AGREEMENTS EXISTS
BESSENT: REDUCTIONS DO NOT INCLUDE SECTOR-SPECIFIC TARIFFS
BESSENT: NO DISCUSSION ON CURRENCY IN CHINA TALKS
BESSENT: U.K., SWITZERLAND MOVED TO FRONT OF QUEUE FOR TRADE DEALS
CHINA: HOPES TO MAINTAIN STABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH U.S.
CHINA MOFCOM: U.S. AND CHINA RECOGNIZE IMPORTANCE OF BILATERAL TRADE
TRUMP: SEEKING $1 TRILLION IN DEALS DURING GULF TRIP — AXIOS
BOE’S GREENE: DISINFLATION PROCESS IS UNDER WAY
BOE’S GREENE: INFLATION PERSISTENCE INDICATORS STILL TOO HIGH
BOE’S GREENE: WORRIED ABOUT SUPPLY SIDE OF THE ECONOMY
BOE’S GREENE: TRADE POLICY LIKELY DISINFLATIONARY FOR U.K.
BESSENT: CHINA TALKS IN GENEVA WERE RESPECTFUL
BESSENT: U.S. WAS FIRM WITH CHINA IN TALKS
BESSENT: IMAGINE WE WILL MEET WITH CHINA AGAIN IN NEXT FEW WEEKS
BESSENT: ‘UNFORTUNATE ESCALATION’ HAPPENED WITH CHINA
BESSENT: U.S. NOW SEEKING STRATEGIC DECOUPLING WITH CHINA
BESSENT: BOTH SIDES AGREE WE DO NOT WANT GENERALIZED DECOUPLING
BESSENT: CURRENT TARIFF LEVEL FOR CHINA IS A ‘FLOOR’
BESSENT: IT IS ‘IMPLAUSIBLE’ CHINA TARIFFS GO BELOW 10%
BESSENT: SEE PHONE CALL BEFORE MEETING BETWEEN TRUMP AND XI
BESSENT: TRUMP VIEWED 80% AS NOT AN EMBARGO FOR CHINA
BESSENT: IF CHINA ACTS, FENTANYL TARIFF COULD COME DOWN
TRUMP: APPLE BUILDING MANY PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES
TRUMP: CHINA DEAL DOES NOT INCLUDE CARS, STEEL, ALUMINUM
TRUMP: WILL SPEAK TO XI MAYBE AT END OF WEEK
TRUMP: CHINA DEAL DOES NOT INCLUDE TARIFFS ALREADY IN PLACE
TRUMP: HE WILL SPEAK TO XI MAYBE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
TRUMP: BEST PART OF DEAL IS CHINA AGREEING TO OPEN UP
TRUMP: CHINA WILL SUSPEND OR REMOVE ALL NON-MONETARY BARRIERS
TRUMP: CHINA AGREED TO END FENTANYL FLOW
TRUMP: CHINA WILL BE REWARDED ON TARIFFS FOR FENTANYL ACTION
TRUMP: EU IS ‘IN MANY WAYS, NASTIER THAN CHINA’
TRUMP: IF NECESSARY, WE WILL INVESTIGATE THE DRUG COMPANIES
TRUMP: MANY OTHER DEALS COMING
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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