Macro Regime Tracker: Macro Views
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clear
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
I recorded a livestream breaking down all my macro views here:
Nothing has changed in my views. See the notes in the chat here:
I am working on the next report explaining all the major trades I am thinking about connected to the credit cycle. More on this soon.
As always, the models and strategies are updated below. Thanks.
Main Developments In Macro
US Macro & Policy
US TO PRESS G-7 ON CHINA, INDIA TARIFFS TOMORROW: FT
US TREASURY SAYS G-7 PARTNERS NEED TO 'STEP UP': FT
US TO CALL ON G-7 TO TARIFF CHINA, INDIA OVER RUSSIAN OIL: FT
FED DISCOUNT-WINDOW LOANS $5.37B IN WEEK ENDED SEPT. 10 AFTER $4.37B
US MONEY-MARKET FUND ASSETS HIT RECORD $7.30 TRILLION AT ICI
TRUMP ASKS COURT TO PAUSE ORDER LETTING LISA COOK STAY AT FED
BESSENT AIMS TO ADD 1, 2 MORE NAMES TO FED CHAIR SHORTLIST: CNBC
HOUSE DEMOCRATS ASK FHFA INSPECTOR TO REVIEW PROBE ON COOK: NBC
US BUDGET GAP $345B FOR AUG., $1.97T FOR 11 MTHS THROUGH AUG.
US 30Y BONDS DRAW 4.651%, MATCHES PRE-SALE WHEN-ISSUED YIELD
US AWARDS 62.0% OF 29-YR 11-MO BONDS TO INDIRECT BIDDERS
US AWARDS 28.0% OF 29-YR 11-MO BONDS TO DIRECT BIDDERS
US 29-YR 11-MO BONDS DRAW 4.651%; ALLOTTED AT HIGH 44.54%
US 29-YR 11-MO BONDS BID/COVER RATIO 2.38 VS. 2.27 PREVIOUS AUCTION
TREASURY WI 30Y YIELD 4.651% BEFORE $22 BILLION AUCTION
US JOBLESS CLAIMS 263,000 IN SEPT. 6 WEEK; EST. 235K
US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
US AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%
EIA SAYS US NATURAL-GAS STOCKPILES ROSE 71 BCF LAST WEEK
International – Macro & Policy with US Linkages
ECB INCLINED TO KEEP RATES UNCHANGED BARRING ECONOMIC SHOCK
GOLD SURPASSES INFLATION-ADJUSTED RECORD HIGH SET IN 1980
IMF: ENCOURAGE ARGENTINA TO REBUILD FX RESERVES
IMF: OUR SENSE IS, FED HAS SCOPE TO BEGIN TO LOWER RATES
IMF: FED SHOULD ‘PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY’ IN LOWERING RATES
IMF: SOME STRAINS BEGINNING TO SHOW IN US ECONOMY
CHINA TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT INTERESTS IF NEEDED: SPOKESPERSON
CHINA HOPES MEXICO TO BE `EXTRA PRUDENT' IN PLANNED TARIFFS
SHEINBAUM: WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR A CONFLICT W/CHINA TARIFFS
OPEC Still Sees Tight Oil Market Despite Supply Increases
Trump & Trade Commentary
LUTNICK: CONFIDENT SUPREME COURT WILL SIDE W/ US ON TARIFFS
LUTNICK: CHINA PAYING AVERAGE TARIFF OF 52%
LUTNICK: GOVERNMENT OF CHINA IS EATING MOST OF ITS TARIFF
LUTNICK: CHINESE CARS ARE NOT COMPETITIVE, THEY'RE GOV-BACKED
LUTNICK: EUROPEANS WILL BLOCK CHINESE CARS, THEY'LL LEARN
LUTNICK: WILL SEE GDP GROWTH NEXT YEAR OVER 4%
LUTNICK: TARIFFS BRINGING IN $40B A MONTH
LUTNICK: WILL SORT INDIA OUT WHEN THEY STOP BUYING RUSSIAN OIL
LUTNICK: BIG DEAL COMING WITH TAIWAN
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.
Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income, and Currencies
You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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