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Macro Regime Tracker: The Credit Cycle
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Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)

Macro Regime Tracker: The Credit Cycle

Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly

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Capital Flows
May 14, 2025
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Macro Regime Tracker: The Credit Cycle
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The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.


Macro Regime Tracker Index:

  • Macro Regime Context

  • Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

  • Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

  • Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

  • AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin


Macro Regime Context:

I have laid out the full macro framework and view for everything in the cycle here:

Alpha Reports

Alpha Report: The Credit Cycle, Bond Market Crash, and Final Capitulation

Capital Flows
·
May 14
Alpha Report: The Credit Cycle, Bond Market Crash, and Final Capitulation

Volatility Is Coming:

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Main Developments In Macro

*TRUMP ANNOUNCES $600B SAUDI INVESTMENT COMMITMENT

*CHINA GOVT REPEATS TARIFF CUT REACHED IN TRADE TALKS WITH US

*SAUDI CROWN PRINCE: TO WORK ON BOOSTING US INVESTMENTS TO $1T

*TRUMP CALLS CHINA AGREEMENT A 'BREAKTHROUGH'

*TRUMP: TAX BILL WOULD BE ROCKET SHIP FOR US ECONOMY

*TRUMP: IT'S GONNA GO A LOT HIGHER

*TRUMP: AMAZING WHAT A RISING MARKET WILL DO

*TRUMP PRAISES SAUDI DIVERSIFICATION FROM OIL

*TRUMP: OIL IS ALWAYS GOING TO BE A BIG 'MONSTER' IN SAUDI

*TRUMP: DREAM SAUDI WILL JOIN ABRAHAM ACCORDS

*TRUMP: WILL DRIVE IRANIAN OIL EXPORTS TO ZERO IF NO AGREEMENT

*TRUMP: TALKS BEING HELD THURSDAY ON RUSSIA'S WAR IN UKRAINE

*ECB'S VILLEROY: ANOTHER INTEREST-RATE CUT LIKELY BY SUMMER

*ECB'S VILLEROY: TRUMP TARIFFS FUEL INFLATION IN US, NOT EUROPE

*TRUMP: FED MUST LOWER RATE 'LIKE EUROPE AND CHINA HAVE DONE'

*HASSETT: WHEN TRUMP GETS BACK HE WILL ANNOUNCE NEXT DEAL

*HASSETT: DEALS CLOSE TO BEING FINALIZED


Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities

Tearsheet Crypto 20250513
4.83MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fi 202505013
14.9MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Fx 202505013
17.3MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Eq 20250513
19MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download
Tearsheet Comd 20250513
34.6MB ∙ PDF file
Download
Download


Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates

Fred Analysis Dashboard V2025 V4
9.05MB ∙ XLSX file
Download
Download


Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker

The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.

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