Macro Regime Tracker: Trading Talk and Macro Bets
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
The most important announcement is that we are running a 31% off deal on the paid version of the Substack. This will be the lowest price that the paid tier will ever be at before we release additional models this year. You can find all the details here:
Capital Flows Discount For Early Adopters - 31% Off For The Next 10 Days
1. The Road Already Travelled
I recorded a podcast with
today and it was a great conversation diving into how to think about building an investment thesis. I would encourage you to check it out and follow his work.The videos he is making are really cool as well:
And the most recent macro bet has been published here:
Main Developments In Macro
*BESSENT: NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINA BEGIN ON SATURDAY
*BESSENT: CONDITIONS FOR STRONG DOLLAR IMPORTANT FOR CONFIDENCE
*BESSENT, ASKED IF PUTIN IS A WAR CRIMINAL, SAYS 'YES'
*TRUMP: CONFIDENT US ENVOY TO CHINA WILL DO EXCEPTIONAL JOB
*TRUMP TO US ENVOY TO CHINA: 'SAY HELLO' TO CHINESE PRESIDENT XI
*TRUMP: NOT LOOKING FOR SO MANY TARIFF EXEMPTIONS
*POWELL: NEAR-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP
*POWELL: MOST LONGER-TERM MEASURES CONSISTENT WITH 2% GOAL
*POWELL: FOR TIME BEING, FED WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR CLARITY
*TRUMP: CAN'T PREDICT WHETHER US-CHINA WILL GET ALONG
*TRUMP: BIG MEETING ON SATURDAY IN SWITZERLAND
*KEN GRIFFIN: FED'S DESCRIPTION OF ECONOMY EVOKES STAGFLATION
*KEN GRIFFIN SAYS HE SEES MODEST RISK OF STAGFLATION
*BOJ MEMBER: TO RAISE RATE IF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS REALIZED
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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