Macro Regime Tracker: Volatility
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clear
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
see the most recent macro report here
Macro Report: The Contagion Effect: Volatility’s Hidden Path Through the Economy
Macro Report: The Contagion Effect: Volatility’s Hidden Path Through the Economy
Per usual, all the systematic models and strategies are updated below.
Main Developments In Macro
U.S. Economy & Labor Market
FED RELEASES BEIGE BOOK SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
FED BEIGE BOOK: MOST DISTRICTS SEE LITTLE OR NO GROWTH
TREASURIES RISE AFTER JOB OPENINGS FALL MORE THAN ESTIMATED
BLOOMBERG DOLLAR SPOT INDEX FALLS TO DAILY LOW AFTER JOLTS DATA
US JULY JOB OPENINGS 7.181M; EST. 7.380M
US JULY JOB OPENINGS RATE 4.3%
US JULY JOB QUITTERS 3.208M; EST. 3.166M
US JULY QUITS RATE 2.0%
US JULY LAYOFFS 1.808M; EST. 1.639M
US JULY LAYOFFS RATE 1.1%
US FINAL JULY NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS EX-AIR RISE 1.1% M/M
US FINAL JULY NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS SHIPMENTS EX-AIR RISE 0.7% M/M
US JULY FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANS RISE 0.6% M/M; EST. +0.6%
US JULY FACTORY ORDERS FALL 1.3% M/M; EST. -1.3%
US FINAL JULY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL 2.8% M/M; EST. -2.8%
Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy
MIRAN: INDEPENDENCE OF MONETARY POLICY CRITICAL FOR FED
MIRAN: INDEPENDENCE OF MONETARY POLICY IS A CRITICAL ELEMENT
MIRAN: COMPOSITION OF FED'S BALANCE SHEET IS OPEN QUESTION
MIRAN: CENTRAL BANK MAIN JOB IS TO PREVENT DEPRESSION, INFLATION
TILLIS WANTS COURT RULING BEFORE REPLACING FED'S COOK: POLITICO
FED CONFERENCE TO DISCUSS STABLECOINS, AI, TOKENIZATION
FEDERAL RESERVE TO HOLD OCT. 21 PAYMENTS INNOVATION CONFERENCE
TAYLOR: NEUTRAL RATE OF INTEREST IS QUITE LOW, FURTHER TO GO
U.S. Politics & Policy (Macro-Relevant)
TRUMP: HARDER TO WIN AI RACE AGAINST CHINA WITHOUT TARIFFS
TREASURY DEPARTMENT ISSUES STATEMENT ON FSOC MEETING
TRUMP: THINK REPUBLICANS WILL VOTE FOR BUDGET EXTENSION
TRUMP REPEATS CRITICISMS OF VENEZUELAN DRUGS, MIGRANTS
TRUMP: VENEZUELA HAS BEEN VERY BAD ACTOR
Geopolitics (U.S. Links)
NAWROCKI: DISCUSSED BOOSTING NUMBER OF US TROOPS IN POLAND
TRUMP: US SOLDIERS WILL REMAIN IN POLAND
TRUMP: RELATIONS WITH POLAND ARE BETTER THAN EVER
TRUMP: WILL DISCUSS TRADE WITH POLAND'S NAWROCKI
CARNEY HAD 'LENGTHY, CONSTRUCTIVE' TALK WITH TRUMP ON MONDAY
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.
Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income, and Currencies
You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Capital Flows to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.