Macro Regime Tracker: Where are equities going?
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
See Trade Write Up here:
Trade Write-Ups: Bonds and FX
See the ES view I laid out here. MSFT earnings continue to confirm what I have laid out:
And equity view video here:
Main Developments In Macro
*NAVARRO: WE LIKE WHERE WE'RE AT NOW WITH RESPECT TO CHINA
*NAVARRO: GDP WAS DRAGGED DOWN, WON'T BE THE CASE NEXT QUARTER
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE FOUR QUARTER-POINT FED CUTS BY END-2025
*NAVARRO: BEST WAY TO NEGOTIATE WITH CHINA IS VERY QUIETLY
*NAVARRO: 'VERY DOABLE' FOR APPLE TO MOVE MANUFACTURING TO US
*NAVARRO: WE NEED TO HAVE BOEING'S BACK
*TRUMP TALKS POSSIBLE CONTRACT FOR AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM
*BESSENT: TRUMP HAS CREATED NEGOTIATING LEVERAGE AND LEADERSHIP
*HASSETT: WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF GDP DATA IS REVISED
*TRUMP REPEATS THIS IS BIDEN'S ECONOMY
*TRUMP: NEED TO GIVE US A 'LITTLE TIME' TO GET MOVING
*TRUMP: TAX BILL WILL HAVE RETROACTIVE EXPENSING TO JAN. 20
*TRUMP: ELI LILLY CEO KEEPS TELLING ME ABOUT THE 'MIDDLEMAN'
*TRUMP: PHARMA, CHIP COMPANIES ALL SET TO GROW IN THE US
*TRUMP: THERE WILL BE A TARIFF WALL COMING UP
*WE HAVE DEALS THAT ARE CLOSE, WITHIN WEEKS: USTR GREER
*MEETING WITH JAPAN, SAUDI ARABIA, GUYANA TOMORROW: GREER
*MEETING WITH PHILIPPINES ON FRIDAY: GREER
*INDIA IS CLOSE: GREER
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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