Hey everyone,
This will be the first article for paid subscribers! I just want to start by saying thank you for taking the trade and being long Capital Flows!
Let’s talk about bonds. I had a long bond trade on that recently got stopped out. I want to talk about why and the specific signals I am watching for a better entry.
Big picture, there are two things that move interest rates: inflation expectations and real rates. Inflation expectations are primarily connected to inflation in the economy as measured by CPI, PCE and PPI. Real rates are primarily driven by the monetary policy function.
