Manias, Panics, and Positioning: The Bubble Playbook
Credit Cycle, Hyperliquid, and dollar liquidity
The Bubble PlayBook Livestream:
Every bear market feels like the end of the world. None of them are. They follow three patterns: cyclical, event-driven, and structural. Once you can identify the pattern, you can map the duration, the depth, and the path back to new highs.
Tomorrow, I’m walking through 200 years of every major drawdown across the US, Japan, Europe, and China. We’ll spend most of our time on the eleven that matter: 1929, 1973, 1980, 1987, the dot com bust, the GFC, Japan’s lost decades, the 2011 sovereign crisis, the COVID crash, and the 2022 stocks and bonds bear.
For each one, we will dig into: the trigger, the melt-up that preceded it, the drivers that pulled it down, the rate backdrop, and the shape of the recovery.
TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK
I will also be covering more on my Hyperliquid thesis and PURR trade. You can find the most recent Twitter thread I wrote on it below. Nothing has changed in my thesis, and I continue to hold my PURR position.
Thanks
The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.
Deck? New sub and thank you