Manias, Panics, and Positioning: The Bubble Playbook
Credit Cycle, Hyperliquid, and dollar liquidity
The Bubble PlayBook Livestream:
Every bear market feels like the end of the world. None of them are. They follow three patterns: cyclical, event-driven, and structural. Once you can identify the pattern, you can map the duration, the depth, and the path back to new highs.
Tomorrow, I’m walking through 200 years of every major drawdown across the US, Japan, Europe, and China. We’ll spend most of our time on the eleven that matter: 1929, 1973, 1980, 1987, the dot com bust, the GFC, Japan’s lost decades, the 2011 sovereign crisis, the COVID crash, and the 2022 stocks and bonds bear.
For each one, we will dig into: the trigger, the melt-up that preceded it, the drivers that pulled it down, the rate backdrop, and the shape of the recovery.
TOMORROW’S LIVESTREAM: LINK
I will also be covering more on my Hyperliquid thesis and PURR trade. You can find the most recent Twitter thread I wrote on it below. Nothing has changed in my thesis, and I continue to hold my PURR position.
Thanks
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