My Large Macro/Crypto Bet: Updated Analysis, Fair Value Indicator & Full Report

The evidence is stacking up

PURR: Q4 2025 Earnings, Updated Fair Value Model & Live TradingView Indicator

If you have been following my work, then you know I have two simple goals:

1. Map the macro regime so that I stay on the right side of it.

2. Find asymmetric bets that function as homerun trades.

This process is what I lay out for paid subscribers every day.

PURR has been one of those bets from the very beginning. I first published the thesis on December 9, 2025, titled “My Large Macro/Crypto Bet,” when Bloomberg Social Monitor showed literally no one was talking about $PURR on any social media platform. There had been one tweet about it. One. I published the full research report (link), spoke extensively on the livestream about how it was trading at a discount to fair value, and laid out why I believed volume for traditional financial assets would outpace crypto volume on Hyperliquid.

By January 15, the thesis was playing out exactly as outlined. I reiterated: I AM BULLISH $PURR. Not because of hype or momentum, but because the fundamental evidence was compounding in the direction I had mapped out.

Here is the progression on the chart:

Every step of this was documented in real time for subscribers. The initial report. The livestream breakdown. The follow-up analysis when price action confirmed the thesis. And now, with Q4 2025 earnings in hand, the evidence has only gotten stronger.

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What Just Happened

PURR reported its first set of earnings as a public company. The data confirms everything I laid out in December and then some:

• Management deployed $140 million in 63 days, buying HYPE at an average of $25.94 (well below the listing price and today’s price)

• HYPE token holdings grew 40% from 12.5M to 17.5M tokens

• The company is running at roughly $7M/year in operating costs, and staking revenue alone could nearly cover that

• Zero debt. 95.6% equity capitalization. Fortress balance sheet.

• HIP-3 non-crypto perps (equities, forex, commodities) now represent >25% of total Hyperliquid volume, confirming the decorrelation thesis I outlined from day one

At today’s prices (PURR $4.43, HYPE $29.07), the stock trades at roughly 1.05x Adjusted NAV. That is a 5% premium to liquidation value for a company that is the only institutional on-ramp for the #12 token by market cap, backed by a former Barclays CEO and a former Federal Reserve president, with a $1 billion equity line of credit for further accumulation.

The market is still not paying attention. And that is the opportunity.

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What’s Below

Below the paywall, you will find two things:

1. The full Q4 2025 earnings breakdown and updated thesis with scenario analysis from bear to max bull.

2. A custom TradingView indicator that maps PURR’s real-time fair value and mNAV premium/discount using live HYPE prices. Overlay it on the chart and you can see exactly where price sits relative to NAV at any moment.