Capital Flows

Capital Flows

Alpha Reports

Short End Interest Rate Strategy

The 2 year and STIR pricing into FOMC

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Capital Flows
Oct 28, 2025
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ZT – Anchored in Goldilocks: Growth Solid, Front-End Range Intact

The front end remains remarkably stable post-CPI, with 2-year yields effectively locked in a 20–25 bp range and currently sitting in the middle. Despite a softer inflation print, the front end refused to break lower, confirming that the market’s conviction now rests on the labor side of the mandate, and less so for the inflation side.

The message from price action is clear: inflation is moving into the background; the next move likely belongs to labor.

See big picture macro views here:

We’re Watching the Fed Push the Dollar to Its Breaking Point

We’re Watching the Fed Push the Dollar to Its Breaking Point

Capital Flows
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Oct 27
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Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity Context

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