The AI Compute Playbook
LIVESTREAM/PROPIETARY REPORT
The first section of today’s live stream broke down the AI compute market and why the financialization of compute is becoming the most important development in the entire AI trade.
Main takeaways from the free section:
Corporate credit issuance hit $110 billion in June, the strongest month since March and almost double last June, taking year to date issuance to 685 billion. That debt is funding factories, data centers, and jobs, so the credit cycle is melting up and the labor data is starting to confirm it.
US compute futures and perps are launching into a market where GPU financiers already desperately need to lock in prices. This is hedging demand waiting for an instrument, not a speculative product searching for users.
Six ETF issuers have filed preliminary prospectuses for compute futures ETFs before the underlying futures even trade, among the first in history, and the tweet announcing it got eight retweets. Nobody is watching the market that everyone is about to be forced to watch.
GPU residual value is the fault line. GPU financing only became its own asset class in 2023, and the closest precedent is IBM mainframes in the 1970s, where lessors who booked aggressive residuals went bankrupt within months of IBM’s price cuts. Underwriting a high vol asset with low vol credit is the same mistake Stretch just made, and when credit vol rises faster than equity vol you get out of the way.
The yen carry trade keeps exporting liquidity to The United States, and that borrowed money is buying AI and compute names. As long as Japanese real rates sit below zero the spring keeps compressing, and the trade unwinds WHEN real rates shift or the Ministry of Finance issues below expectations, not before.
You can find the free recording on the AI Compute Playbook here in the YouTube video:
The member section connects this framework to the live regime and positioning, with the recording linked at the bottom of this report.
Macro Decks From today’s stream:
All slide decks by Jaymes: LINK
Tomorrow’s Livestream: Is A Liquidity Event Looming On The Horizon?
Tomorrow’s stream asks whether a liquidity event is building underneath a market sitting at highs. We will map the signals across the carry trade, credit volatility, and the funding markets that would flag it first.
Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):
Proprietary Report On The AI Compute Market
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