The Melt-Up Before the Collapse: Building a Testable Thesis in Real Time Across Equities and Bitcoin

The macro thesis that brings everything together

THE Macro Thesis Process:

The way you approach thinking about the world, and the questions you ask about it, will frame the quality of your actions.

What truly separates people who merely think about markets from those who deeply understand them?

How can I differentiate myself so that I consistently generate the highest quality ideas and execute them with precision to achieve exceptional returns?

These are the kinds of questions that must be answered to succeed in markets or in any domain of life.

One of the defining moments in my development as a thinker in markets came when I asked: How do I quantify my view so that I know where I’m wrong and adapt accordingly?

If you’re not iterating and adapting in the right direction, it doesn’t matter how many errors you identify.

I say all of this because I’ve spent time building a complete playbook on how to think about markets and why it’s critical to develop a testable macro thesis in order to succeed, not just in markets but in life.

What follows is a comprehensive playbook on how to approach markets both quantitatively and qualitatively, so that you can consistently iterate in the right direction:

Building A Falsifiable Investment Thesis A First Principles Guide By Capital Flows

404KB ∙ PDF file

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What we need to do now is directly connect this process to specific assets. This is why I have pulled together playbooks on Bitcoin and the S&P500 so that you can understand HOW all of the fundamental principles tangibly connect to markets.

See playbooks below!

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Bitcoin as a Macro Liquidity “Release Valve”:

Comprehensive playbook on Bitcoin and HOW to think about it from a macro perspective of developing a testable thesis:

Bitcoin As A Macro Liquidity Release Valve

420KB ∙ PDF file

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Download

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The S&P 500 Macro Regime Playbook:

Comprehensive playbook on the S&P500 and HOW to think about it from a macro perspective of developing a testable thesis:

The S&p 500 Macro Regime Playbook By Capital Flows

660KB ∙ PDF file

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Download

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Pulling Things Together:

All of the educational articles are laid out here:

I will be doing a live stream tomorrow morning after the CPI print, further explaining HOW these playbooks connect to the price action in assets.

You can find these livestreams either on the YouTube Channel (link) or Twitter (link)

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As always, a Pepe for the culture:

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