The 'already visible in rates and the data' point is the part most equity investors underweight. From where I sit selling premium, a structural re-industrialization bid under rates changes the whole vol regime, not just equity leadership. It keeps the front end sticky, which keeps the term structure in contango and quietly caps how cheap downside protection ever gets. Positioning across the stack is the right frame, I'd just add that the vol stack tends to reprice too, and usually before the equity one does.
Capital Flows nails the mechanism the rate-cut crowd keeps refusing to price: you don't get cheap money while the real economy is bidding for steel, silicon and turbines all at once. Capex that has to happen doesn't ask the dot plot for permission.
Here's the part that should reframe it for anyone still betting on a 2019 redux. Construction of computer and electronics factories ran around 3% of all US manufacturing construction back in 2016. By mid-2024 it was nearly 60%. One category ate the entire re-industrialization wave. That's not a cycle you cut into, it's a decade-long draw on capital sitting under the front end, and it isn't moving.
I don't fade structural demand for a slogan. The money's going into concrete, not parked at zero. Trade the regime you're actually in.
The 'already visible in rates and the data' point is the part most equity investors underweight. From where I sit selling premium, a structural re-industrialization bid under rates changes the whole vol regime, not just equity leadership. It keeps the front end sticky, which keeps the term structure in contango and quietly caps how cheap downside protection ever gets. Positioning across the stack is the right frame, I'd just add that the vol stack tends to reprice too, and usually before the equity one does.
Capital Flows nails the mechanism the rate-cut crowd keeps refusing to price: you don't get cheap money while the real economy is bidding for steel, silicon and turbines all at once. Capex that has to happen doesn't ask the dot plot for permission.
Here's the part that should reframe it for anyone still betting on a 2019 redux. Construction of computer and electronics factories ran around 3% of all US manufacturing construction back in 2016. By mid-2024 it was nearly 60%. One category ate the entire re-industrialization wave. That's not a cycle you cut into, it's a decade-long draw on capital sitting under the front end, and it isn't moving.
I don't fade structural demand for a slogan. The money's going into concrete, not parked at zero. Trade the regime you're actually in.