Trade: BTC, Gold, and Bonds

Unwind

Hello everyone,

As you know, since I closed the ES position this morning, we have only seen additional downside. The implication is that the ranges in variance are expanding.

Until we unwind the implied correlation positioning risk I noted in the equity report, I am neutral beta.

As a result, it is prudent to go neutral on metals and Bitcoin here. I opened the BTC long at the lows (link) and we are well within the money now. I am taking the position off for a small gain.

I am also taking off the gold long I shared with paid subscribers:

Notice how risk assets are deviating marginally from bonds as the DXY rallies.

These are the types of signals we need to adapt to on the fly. We are managing the positioning risk and the macro risk of these flows.

I have laid out all the research contextualizing these flows here:

This really brings us to bonds.

(All additional trades for risk assets in ES or BTC will be shared with paid subscribers).