Trades: Week Ahead and Alpha Trades
Tensions and technical levels in equities/bonds
Two things to set the context:
Review the bond report where I explain the tensions in bonds right now: Link
I highly encourage you to watch the discussion I had with Prometheus Research on how the mechanics of interest rates work. This is an incredibly rare convo that you won’t get anywhere else: Link
These will set the context for CPI this week and FOMC next week:
We also have OPEX on Friday:
Headline inflation is expected to stay flat while core decelerates. The main focus continues to be core as crude reverses from its false breakout:
Crude is falling from the $80 level:
This was noted in the chat for paid subscribers:
Remember, moving up this $80 level, COT positioning had accelerated significantly:
Crude calendars squeezed to the upside on low implied vol. These calendars and the outright price are likely to fall on rising implied volatility. Shorting the calendars over the outright provides a better R:R in my analysis but both are likely to fall marginally over the next month.
Alpha Trade Report:
Below is a report on the specific positioning and alpha trades in both equities and bonds. I will be releasing several additional Alpha Trade Reports on commodities this week as well.
Great things are created in isolation.
I don’t. I’m kinda done writing primers for a while lol. If someone wants specific pieces or consulting services then maybe I’d consider it. Appreciate the kind words tho !
Revisited this alpha report, what was the spread you have used in BBG for the skew in the chart with (SMH, SPX, XLK)? Thanks!