Week Ahead Strategy: Interesting Thoughts Heading Into The Week
Powell's Going To Make Some Moves!
Hey everyone,
I hope your weekend went well!
If you didn’t catch the article from yesterday, here it is. There are some great macro thoughts in it:
Brainstorm: Simple and Intuitive
Hey everyone, I hope all of you are having a good weekend! Over the past two weeks, I have covered some pretty technical and in-depth topics. As of this week, there are now primers on the S&P500 (link), Bonds (link), and FX (link). Today I want to take a little bit of a step back from the technical side to look at the big picture.
We have a full week ahead with multiple catalysts that will be moving both equity and bond markets. I will go through the events, provide some observations and then share how I view the risk-reward of assets moving forward.
The never-ending game of markets and life continues!
Events:
We have the economic calendar with some housing data and PMI data. Initial claims continue to cause algo spikes in bonds so watch out for those. Durable goods might move things a little but positioning will likely be looking to Friday for the speech by then.
The main event of the week is Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Quick note:
Observations:
Let me explain how I am thinking about FED speeches right now.
At the moment, the market believes that Powell is done hiking and that cuts are on the table in Q1 of 2024:
Eventually, Powell is going to have to either confirm or deny the possibility of cuts in Q1 of 2024. So every speech is a catalyst to confirm or falsify this idea.
I have a very different view from the market which connects to how price action is likely to function this week.
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