Why the 2026 Credit Cycle Won’t Look Like 2025 (Or the Last 15 Years)

How the setups that worked in 2024–2025 become landmines in 2026 as rates, liquidity, and credit transmission flip regime.

Why the 2026 Credit Cycle Won’t Look Like 2025 (Or the Last 15 Years)

The most dangerous thing you can do going into 2026 is run a “slightly updated” version of your 2025 playbook.

2025 trained a lot of smart people to do the wrong things for the next phase of the credit cycle: it rewarded a specific mix of rate expectations, liquidity assumptions, and positioning that will not be there for you next year.

In the video below, I walk through why the 2026 credit cycle is likely to behave differently from both:

• the last 15 years and

• the playbook that worked in 2025

and what that implies for anyone actually sizing risk rather than just having macro opinions.

If you allocate capital for yourself or others and you’re planning into 2026, this is worth 20 minutes of your time.

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The 2026 Macro Regime Playbook – Closed-Door Livestream – Monday At Market Close

If this raised some uncomfortable questions about how you’re set up for 2026, that’s intentional.

The closed door livestream on Monday at market close (4pm EST) walks through how I’m approaching the 2026 regime in more detail, and how you can join the closed-door livestream where I’ll lay out the full playbook. (LINKED BELOW)