As you know, everything for this week has been laid out here:
The macro podcast explaining the bigger picture regime we are in is here:
FOMC and election hedges will be unwound this week:
Kamala's probability spiked back up over the last couple of days. While there isn’t crazy asymmetry, being short this in the betting market for Monday is likely a good bet, and then going flat into election night.
This is a lot of the sentiment on the street right now. A lot of people are short duration into this election:
This is the consensus for the view already laid out on AUDUSD (link): Again, way too many people are expecting a higher dollar.
The Gilts price action we saw caused a short term positioning flush and we are likely to move higher in the Pound as was already laid out (link). (I am still holding the GBPUSD laid out here: Link).
All of this brings us to several important views and technical levels for this week:
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