Trade: Update

The job market, interest rates, and equities

We are in a period of time where positioning is aggressively exerting its presence in markets against the macro regime. The macro regime, positioning dynamics and trades being run in connection with these have been laid out in the following reports and chat messages:

• Alpha Report: Election Hedging

• Alpha Report: Path Dependency and Macro Flows

• Trade: Opening (1)

• Trades: NFP, PCE and Rates

• Trade: Opening (2)

Chat Messages Updates:

If you are trying to understand the connection between positioning and the macro regime, review the Macro Alpha Primers:

• Macro Alpha Primer: Credit Risk and Duration Risk and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Correlations and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Macro Catalysts, Hedging Pressure, and Positioning and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Positioning Premiums and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Stacking Edges To Identify a Sucker

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Big Picture:

We have gone through the first of 3 catalysts that were laid out in the Alpha Reports. The NFP print today came in BELOW expectations as the unemployment rate remained flat.

Understanding this print as it connects to interest rates is critical for how we move into next week.