I have been very explicit about my views on equities over the last month. One month ago, I turned significantly less aggressive in my bullish stance and raised cash. Why? Because the positioning and macro backdrop had changed. The macro flows no longer justified an aggressively bullish view on equities for a credit cycle melt-up. Over the last month, I have transitioned into laying out the tensions for the risk-reward in equities and batting singles instead of trying to aggressively swing for the fences in my trading.
Last week, I published my report explaining the entire macro picture and the tensions for WHERE we are moving next: see here
If you have been following along in the chat, I have been updating you in real time about WHAT the specific levels in ES would flip us from neutral to bearish within the current reflexive feedback loops we are in:
The recent note I sent out reiterated that my overall stance is one of holding cash and waiting but I was still taking short-term trades with small size from the long side. As we hit the 7670 level in ES, this has changed. Batting singles over the last month has gone incredibly well: buying gold (link), shorting vol into NVDA and Jackson Hole, and reiterating over and over that bonds are skewed to the downside and remaining BELOW the previous FOMC level.
Now this has changed.