Over the last several weeks, I’ve been laying out the macro and geopolitical backdrop that I believe will drive returns over the next 6–12 months: growth and inflation trends, policy shifts, war risk, supply chains, and capital flows. If you haven’t already, I strongly recommend you go back through those notes before you act on today’s report; the conclusions here sit on top of that foundation, they don’t replace it.
For free subscribers, those prior pieces are your playbook: they explain why the environment looks the way it does and which forces I’m watching most closely. If you’re new, start there so the positioning that follows doesn’t feel like a set of disconnected trades.
Macro Report: A Storm Is Coming and The Coming Storm Playbook: Replay, Resources, and Next Livestream
Geopolitical and Cross-border drivers of liquidity:
For paid subscribers, today is where we connect that framework directly to equities and interest rates right now. I’m going to move from “big picture” to specific implications: which parts of the equity market are most exposed or best positioned under this regime, how I see the path for policy rates and the long end, and what that means for risk-taking over the coming quarters.
The detailed positioning, sector, and factor views, and rate curve analysis begin in the next section, which is available to paying members only. If you want the full trade implications – not just the story – you’ll find the step‑by‑step equity and rates workup behind the paywall below.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Capital Flows to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.