Geopolitical Risk and AI Risk Converging

Mar 02, 2026

∙ Paid

Big Picture Summary:

I want to start by summarizing the views and resources I have laid out, and then I am going to jump right into the analysis for flows this week.

First, I laid out my initial macro view and update of the geopolitical situation here. I also showed the new AI tool I am using to map situations.

As a reminder, you can download and save all of the TradingView indicators here (full educational list: Link):

Here is the geopolitical risk assessment I find helpful:

Arena Brief 2026 03 01

88.7KB ∙ PDF file

I put my broad views for this week here:

If we don’t get the tail scenario, there is a lot of premium in crude right now that could get unwound (more on this below)

Finally, my entire thesis on AI, Hyperliquid, and Oracle is all here:

Feb 24

Now let’s dig into the actual flows.

Subscribe to Capital Flows to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.