[FREE] Educational Primers On Every Aspect Of Macro & Markets
A summary of all educational primers, trading strategy and how to think in the information age
There has never been a time in history when understanding the world from a global perspective and interpreting it accurately paid such a high premium. Since the very beginning of this Substack, I have talked about the nature of the time we live in and how to act intentionally in it.
In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed
We live in a world where capital and technology can leverage an idea almost to infinity. In this type of environment, the quality of your thinking becomes the most important thing.
However, nothing exceptional takes a small amount of time.
In this article, I want to lay out the direction I am taking this Substack, provide a synthesis of all the research that has been written thus far, and connect both to how I think about the information age.
Direction of the Substack:
None of us grew up in optimal circumstances. When you embark on your journey of life, the deck is always stacked against you for accomplishing exceptional things. Many of you realize the necessity of being autodidactic in today’s world because it is the only way to become a person who accomplishes exceptional things.
This is why I share this quote so often:
“You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.”
This Substack is intended to be a real-time view into my journey as an intellectual athlete in financial markets. There is already a surplus of macroeconomic research services and financial news media platforms. What I am doing is different.
Thus far, I have provided monthly macroeconomic reports breaking down how I view the global economy, interest rates, equities, and every other major asset class. I have also provided a number of educational primers explaining how asset classes function and how to correctly analyze them.
When you approach the global economy and financial system, you want a comprehensive understanding of each country and asset class in the world. After you have a clear understanding of the specific variables and mechanics of a system, you can begin to build models for extracting signals. We then use these signals as inputs for building strategies that generate trades (or any type of action).
This process of learning goes far beyond financial markets, it is about how any domain in life works.
My plan is to write educational primers on every country and asset class in the world. This will be the foundation for strategy development and idea generation. This is not an overnight endeavor in any way. Like I said above, nothing exceptional takes a small amount of time.
There is always tension here because you want to balance the amount of research you do for alpha generation with the actual running of strategies. I laid out in depth the different “buckets” I use to organize my thinking in the very first article (link). Here are the main ideas:
“My specific skillset is as follows: I think about what I do under three major ideas
Innovate: I am in a constant process of researching the ever-changing structure and flows in the economy/market to identify durable ways to make money.
Systematize: I then systematize these ideas so that there is a testable framework for confirming or disconfirming the validity of an idea. Ideally, this system then functions as a continual source of insights that requires minimal maintenance.
Run: I then run the system/strategy or use it in order to generate returns in the market.
This entire process of innovating, systematizing, and running is very iterative. As you run a system, you usually identify additional problems or needs that require you to go back to the innovating process to find a solution.”
Alpha:
There are many ways to make money in financial markets. I primarily focus on generating discretionary alpha. Part of life is figuring out where you fit into the big picture, given your mindset and abilities.
I think there is a lot of opportunity in markets for merging discretionary decision-making and systematic models/strategies. If you can make exceptional discretionary decisions on a meta-level and have systematic rigor behind them, you have a lot of upside for any domain you enter.
Synthesis Of All The Research:
In this section, I am going to bring together all the links for the research I have done thus far so that it is in a single location:
Big Picture Education:
How To Think About Markets, Trading, and Wealth Management
How does macro impact real estate and small businesses?
Distribution Of Knowledge And Secrets In The Industry
Active Management - The Only Life Raft Left?
Information Age, Thinking Preemptively and Market Update
Information Broker/Alpha Generation
The Research HUB: Lessons From Argentina
Brainstorms: Nonlinear Learning
Synthesis Of ALL The Research + Special Announcement
Brainstorms: Volatility, Academic Papers, AI Stocks
Brainstorms: Have a playbook and be exceptional
Brainstorm: Inflection Points and Peak Performance
Research HUB: Thinking in probabilities
The Research HUB: Learning In The Information Age
The Research Hub: Man vs Machine / Market Views
Reading, Research and Being Exceptional
Brainstorms: The silent professional
Research Framework:
Positioning and Microstructure
Strategy Development and Risk Management (Guest Writer!)
Risk Management Primer (Guest Writer)
The Research HUB: Risk Management And The Mental Game
The Research HUB: Regime Shifts
The Research HUB: Trading Gamma Squeezes
Macro Report/Insights: GIP Path Dependencies
The Research HUB: Unlimited Upside and Adaptive Risk Management
Brainstorm: Learning About Economics
The Research HUB: How does economic data get priced into the market?
The Research Hub: What Is TRUE Diversification?
THE Model for taking bets in markets (and life) - Free Excel Model Included
The Research HUB: CPI Excel Model
Educational Primers:
The Research Hub: Intraday Liquidity Provision
Risk On/Risk Off Regime Primer
The Research HUB: How Crypto Fits Into Macro Flows
Bitcoin Strategy: The Macro Liquidity Release Valve
Macro Alpha Webinar With Prometheus Research
Macro Podcast: How to generate exceptional returns
The Melt-Up Before the Collapse: Building a Testable Thesis in Real Time Across Equities and Bitcoin
Macro Alpha Primers:
Macro Alpha Primer: Credit Risk and Duration Risk and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
Macro Alpha Primer: Correlations and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
Macro Alpha Primer: Macro Catalysts, Hedging Pressure, and Positioning and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
Macro Alpha Primer: Positioning Premiums and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
FX Primer
Country Primers:
PDF Playbooks and Educational Primers:
Credit Cycle Playbook:
Path Dependent Framework For Capital Flows:
The S&P 500 Macro Regime Playbook:
The Bitcoin Macro Regime Playbook:
Bitcoin Indicator From Tradingview: LINK
Interest Rate Trading Playbook:
Yield Curve Model From Tradingview: LINK
Macro Thesis Development Playbook:
Consumer Macroeconomic Playbook:
Inflation Cycle Playbook:
These articles are meant to function as a foundation for articles I write in the future. If you set a correct foundation for learning, your ability to compound your knowledge increases exponentially.
YouTube Channel:
You can find all of the videos I publish in the respective reports on the Substack or on the YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@CapitalFlowsResearch
Book Recommendations:
Intro books to macro as they relate to rates:
Fixed Income Focused Books:
Fixed Income Strategy: A Practitioner's Guide to Riding the Curve
Trading the Fixed Income, Inflation and Credit Markets: A Relative Value Guide
Fixed Income Trading and Risk Management: The Complete Guide (Wiley Finance)
Fixed Income Markets and Their Derivatives (Academic Press Advanced Finance)
Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner's Guide (Wiley Finance)
The Advanced Fixed Income and Derivatives Management Guide (The Wiley Finance Series)
Systematic Fixed Income: An Investor's Guide (Wiley Finance)
Fixed Income Securities: Tools for Today's Markets (Wiley Finance)
Investing in Fixed Income Securities: Understanding the Bond Market
FX and Banking Focus:
Foreign Exchange: Practical Asset Pricing and Macroeconomic Theory
Inside the Currency Market: Mechanics, Valuation and Strategies
Currency Strategy: The Practitioner's Guide to Currency Investing, Hedging and Forecasting
Connecting It To The Big Picture:
As you can see, the path we are on with this Substack isn’t for the faint of heart. We need a comprehensive view of the world so we know how we fit into it and operate optimally.
Many of the Subscribers of this Substack aren’t even active practitioners in financial markets. They are experts in their own domain, building businesses, managing teams, and making daily operational decisions as a leader. The reason for this is that once you understand how you fit into the big picture, you know HOW to become an expert in a specific domain that aligns with the world as a whole.
Most of life consists of preparation and redundancy planning for that single moment when an opportunity is provided so that you can act with overwhelming aggression. This has always been the case throughout history, but today’s age has amplified its impact.
This video perfectly illustrates the point:
Conclusion:
2 final thoughts……
The alpha sharing won’t stop!
Don’t slow down or quit. Exceptional things never take a small amount of time, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be moving with intensity, focus, and speed.
In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed
Side note: I deeply appreciate the support and patronage from all the paid Subscribers. I will continue publishing research and macro analysis for free Subscribers but many of the important pieces will be exclusively reserved for paid Subscribers. The best is yet to come!
The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.
On 60 mins somewhere
This has been remarkable and I’m very glad I am a paying subscriber. Looking forward to country primers!