Research Synthesis / Direction Of Capital Flows Substack
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Research Synthesis / Direction Of Capital Flows Substack
A summary of all educational primers, trading strategy and how to think in the information age
Hello everyone,
There has never been a time in history when understanding the world from a global perspective and interpreting it accurately paid such a high premium. Since the very beginning of this Substack, I have talked about the nature of the time we live in and how to act intentionally in it.
In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed
We live in a world where capital and technology can leverage an idea almost to infinity. In this type of environment, the quality of your thinking becomes the most important thing.
However, nothing exceptional takes a small amount of time.
In this article, I want to lay out the direction I am taking this Substack, provide a synthesis of all the research that has been written thus far, and connect both to how I think about the information age.
Direction of the Substack:
None of us grow up in optimal circumstances. When you embark on your journey of life, the deck is always stacked against you for accomplishing exceptional things. Many of you realize the necessity of being autodidactic in today’s world because it is the only way to become a person who accomplishes exceptional things.
This is why I share this quote so often:
“You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.”
This Substack is intended to be a real-time view into my journey as an intellectual athlete in financial markets (I shared some of these ideas previously: link). There is already a surplus of macroeconomic research services and financial news media platforms. What I am doing is different.
Thus far, I have provided monthly macroeconomic reports breaking down how I view the global economy, interest rates, equities, and every other major asset class. I have also provided a number of educational primers explaining how asset classes function and how to correctly analyze them.
When you approach the global economy and financial system, you want a comprehensive understanding of each country and asset class in the world. After you have a clear understanding of the specific variables and mechanics of a system, you can begin to build models for extracting signals. We then use these signals as inputs for building strategies that generate trades (or any type of action).
This process of learning goes far beyond financial markets, it is about how any domain in life works.
My plan is to write educational primers on every country and asset class in the world. This will be the foundation for strategy development and idea generation. This is not an overnight endeavor in any way. Like I said above, nothing exceptional takes a small amount of time.
There is always tension here because you want to balance the amount of research you do for alpha generation with the actual running of strategies. I laid out in depth the different “buckets” I use to organize my thinking in the very first article (link). Here are the main ideas:
“My specific skillset is as follows: I think about what I do under three major ideas
Innovate: I am in a constant process of researching the ever-changing structure and flows in the economy/market to identify durable ways to make money.
Systematize: I then systematize these ideas so that there is a testable framework for confirming or disconfirming the validity of an idea. Ideally, this system then functions as a continual source of insights that requires minimal maintenance.
Run: I then run the system/strategy or use it in order to generate returns in the market.
This entire process of innovating, systematizing, and running is very iterative. As you run a system, you usually identify additional problems or needs that require you to go back to the innovating process to find a solution.”
Alpha:
There are many ways to make money in financial markets. I primarily focus on generating discretionary alpha. Part of life is figuring out where you fit into the big picture given your mindset and abilities. If you are trying to refine this area of your life more, I did an interview with Jaymes Rosenthal on it (link). Jaymes is one of the best discretionary alpha traders I have ever met and I’ve learned a lot from him.
I think there is a lot of opportunity in markets for merging discretionary decision-making and systematic models/strategies. If you can make exceptional discretionary decisions on a meta-level and have systematic rigor behind them, you have a lot of upside for any domain you enter.
Synthesis Of All The Research:
In this section, I am going to bring together all the links for the research I have done thus far so that it is in a single location:
Big Picture Education:
How To Think About Markets, Trading, and Wealth Management
How does macro impact real estate and small businesses?
Distribution Of Knowledge And Secrets In The Industry
Active Management - The Only Life Raft Left?
Information Age, Thinking Preemptively and Market Update
Information Broker/Alpha Generation
The Research HUB: Lessons From Argentina
Brainstorms: Nonlinear Learning
Synthesis Of ALL The Research + Special Announcement
Brainstorms: Volatility, Academic Papers, AI Stocks
Brainstorms: Have a playbook and be exceptional
Brainstorm: Inflection Points and Peak Performance
Research HUB: Thinking in probabilities
The Research HUB: Learning In The Information Age
The Research Hub: Man vs Machine / Market Views
Research Framework:
Positioning and Microstructure
Strategy Development and Risk Management (Guest Writer!)
Risk Management Primer (Guest Writer)
The Research HUB: Regime Shifts
The Research HUB: Trading Gamma Squeezes
Macro Report/Insights: GIP Path Dependencies
The Research HUB: Unlimited Upside and Adaptive Risk Management
Brainstorm: Learning About Economics
The Research HUB: How does economic data get priced into the market?
The Research Hub: What Is TRUE Diversification?
Educational Primers:
Risk On/Risk Off Regime Primer
FX Primer
These articles are meant to function as a foundation for articles I write in the future. If you set a correct foundation for learning, your ability to compound your knowledge increases exponentially.
Connecting It To The Big Picture:
As you can see, the path we are on with this Substack isn’t for the faint of heart. We need a comprehensive view of the world so we know how we fit into it and operate optimally.
Many of the Subscribers of this Substack aren’t even active practitioners in financial markets. They are experts in their own domain building businesses, managing people, and making daily operational decisions as a leader. The reason for this is that once you understand how you fit into the big picture, you know HOW to become an expert in a specific domain that aligns with the world as a whole.
Most of life consists of preparation and redundancy planning for that single moment when an opportunity is provided so that you can act with overwhelming aggression. This has always been in the case throughout history but today’s age has amplified its impact.
This video perfectly illustrates the point:
Conclusion:
3 final thoughts……
The alpha sharing won’t stop!
We are in this together. Feel free out any time via email (capitalflowsresearch@gmail.com) or Twitter DM even if it’s just to introduce yourself and say hello.
Don’t slow down or quit. Exceptional things never take a small amount of time but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be moving with intensity, focus, and speed.
In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed
Side note: I deeply appreciate the support and patronage from all the paid Subscribers. I will continue publishing research and macro analysis for free Subscribers but many of the important pieces will be exclusively reserved for paid Subscribers. The best is yet to come!
Thanks for reading!
Research Synthesis / Direction Of Capital Flows Substack
This has been remarkable and I’m very glad I am a paying subscriber. Looking forward to country primers!
Great overview and terrific reminders of First Principles. Nice video clip too!Thanks!