Country Primers: Japan
The framework for trading in Japanese markets
Intro To Country Primers:
Global macro trading is made up of generalists who morph across all countries in the world to find asymmetrical returns. To identify asymmetrical returns, you need an exceptional knowledge of every country, sector, and asset in the world.
Being a true generalist and polymath in today’s world is becoming rare because extreme specialization is taking over every industry. There are now entire teams at every major hedge fund that ONLY focus on a single sector or country.
When I think about competing in financial markets, I never want to compete against people who operate at the top of their specialized fields. Instead, I want to identify the silos of knowledge and the limitations specialists face. The job of the generalistic in today’s modern society of extreme specialization is to use their breadth of knowledge to identify what specialists have difficulty seeing.
Discretionary global macro with the flexibility to operate across any country, sector or asset class is the “final frontier” of trading. As every risk premia and strategy is turned into a beta that is managed, it’s the generalists that will generate the alpha.
It is with this goal that I am embarking on writing Country Primers. I have already written primers that break down the basics of global macro and HOW to construct a framework properly (link). We are now going to build on this foundation to create frameworks in every major country.
If you haven’t gone through the foundational articles for this Substack, I would encourage you to go through them. The ones on FX will be especially helpful for our purposes. Here are all the major ones (see full list here: link)
Research Framework:
Positioning and Microstructure
Strategy Development and Risk Management (Guest Writer!)
Risk Management Primer (Guest Writer)
The Research HUB: Regime Shifts
The Research HUB: Trading Gamma Squeezes
Macro Report/Insights: GIP Path Dependencies
The Research HUB: Unlimited Upside and Adaptive Risk Management
Brainstorm: Learning About Economics
The Research HUB: How does economic data get priced into the market?
The Research Hub: What Is TRUE Diversification?
THE Model for taking bets in markets (and life) - Free Excel Model Included
The Research HUB: CPI Excel Model
Educational Primers:
Risk On/Risk Off Regime Primer
The Research HUB: How Crypto Fits Into Macro Flows
FX Primer
Japan Primer:
Overview: Here is the structure for this primer
Country Overview
Geography and Demographics
Economic Data: GDP, GNI, BoP, and Balance Sheets
Financial Markets: Stocks, Bonds, and the Yen.
History of growth, inflation, and liquidity on a structural and cyclical basis
Current growth, inflation, and liquidity regime and its connection to each financial asset
Additional resources for research and trading in Japanese markets
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